Research On The Influence Of International Commodity Prices

Fluctuations in commodity prices is an important factor related to the national economic system, so the price of commodity is necessary to study. There are two main research the significance of factors affecting the price of commodity: the first is the theoretical significance, considering the demand and monetary factors in major economies, especially the Chinese added after the factors that we can effect on the fluctuation of commodity prices to make the evaluation more comprehensive, but also to fluctuations of commodity prices make to improve the understanding of the. The second is the practice significance, as mentioned above, China’s heavy reliance on resources, so we have to keep a close watch on commodity prices. The fluctuation of commodity prices will be in the formulation of economic policy, the fuel oil price has played an important role. This paper analyzes the main factors to the changes of international commodity price fluctuations in the static Bayesian network framework, and the trend and the market performance of major commodities carried out a detailed description. The main conclusions are as follows:1, there is a direct relationship between commodity prices and the factors not only in developed countries, it also has a direct relationship with the Chinese factors, but China’s influence is relatively small.By the continuous variables of Bayesian network analysis can be seen: in the current stage, will have a direct impact on the overall price of the commodity is GDP and the euro area of China GDP, and these two factors represent a demand from developed countries, a representative of national development needs. But the impact of the developed countries demand to affect all commodity price index is far greater than the needs of developing countries to bring.2, the global economy increasingly integrated, various countries of the region economy will influence each other, economic cycle and economic crisis have global.From the empirical analysis can be seen, not only directly affect commodity prices in different countries and regions, national economic data is interconnected, such empirical results, the possible reasons are: one is to strengthen the economic tiesbetween countries in the world and interdependence enhances day by day; the two is the domestic economy tends to be consistent with the rules; three is to strengthen internationaleconomic coordination mechanism, namely various multilateral or regional coordination and restraint effect on the world economy is more and more strong. Generally speaking, economic globalization refers to the market economy as the foundation, with advanced technology and productivity as the means, dominated by developed countries, to maximize profits and economic benefit as the goal, through the division of labour, trade, investment, the Multi-National Corporation and the flow of factors, to realize the national market division and cooperation, mutual integration process.3, after the subprime crisis with the corresponding global response, governments have taken the basic increase investment, and its loose monetary policy loose, follow that brings the rapid rise in international commodity prices.GDP index in the time America in low levels, is also the most serious subprime crisis2009 to energy price index for 2010 are not very high, basically in the first interval and a second interval, but with the measures carried out step by step, by 2011 and 2012 in the dependent variable in a time interval of second, energy prices index just can achieve a maximum level. But then it is relatively stable or even decline.4, in terms of energy, Chinese demand grow with each passing day. China’s demand factors is an important factor to influence international energy prices, but the monetary factors in China’s influence will be much smaller.The current stage can directly affect the commodity price of fuel is the money supply in China GDP and China and the United States GDP, and these two factors represent a demand in China and China’s monetary policy is also a representative of American demand. But the impact American needs to affect all commodity price index than the demand China slightly lower. The results from the model view Chinese M3 index on the fuel(energy) has negative influence price index, which may be explained from a side control China monetary policy regulation on international commodity prices tend to be weak.