| Commodity prices,as an important indicator that can be clearly quantified,have certain observational advantages over traditional measures of inflation such as CPI.In our country,the inclusion of international commodity prices in specific inflation monitoring has been delayed.Since the global epidemic outbreak in 2020,governments and central banks around the world have adopted expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery,and such measures have simultaneously led to a significant increase in international commodity prices.The rapid importation of international commodity price increases into China and the linked rise in most commodity prices in China have apparently not been reflected quickly in traditional inflation indicators such as CPI in China,which has led to serious social problems such as energy shortages and power cuts and restrictions.In this paper: First,the theoretical analysis of the transmission path of international commodity prices to China’s inflation is conducted,arguing that the rise in international commodity prices is mainly imported into China through the linkage of China’s commodity futures and current prices,and then through the transmission of domestic production channels and diffusion channels to form the vast majority of China’s commodity prices rise and thus pull China’s PPI and CPI upward.Second,analysis of the current supply and demand situation in China’s commodity market found that in recent years,crude oil,soybeans and other commodities domestic supply is far from meeting domestic demand and the annual supply and demand gap is also expanding significantly,the world’s imported inflation is more likely to spread from the price of such commodities and imported into China.Third,when analyzing the current situation of international commodity prices affecting China’s inflation,it is found that the trend of CRB index is relatively similar to that of China’s PPI during2021-2022,indicating that the rise of international commodity prices may have been successfully imported into China and caused the rise of most of China’s industrial products with good price elasticity;the slow rise of CPI indicates that the imported inflation has not yet spread.Fourth,based on the analysis of the theory and the current situation,this paper constructs VAR and SVAR models to empirically study the relationship between international commodity prices and inflation in China.This paper finally concludes that,firstly,the linkage between international commodity prices and China’s commodity futures prices does exist,and international commodity prices can affect China’s inflation by way of price linkage.Secondly,the increase in the general level of international commodity prices is transmitted to China in 1-2 months on average and can effectively pull up the general price level in China,and after 2 months,its influence gradually decreases and can only last for 6 months at most.Finally,through the CRB index framework of crude oil,soybeans,copper,gold,four international commodity prices on China’s inflationary impact of specific empirical research,the results found that the international crude oil prices on China’s inflationary impact is the strongest,the international copper prices on China’s inflationary impact is second only to the international crude oil prices,international soybean prices on China’s inflationary impact is very little,the international gold prices on China The international price of gold has no effect on inflation in China.In response to the conclusion,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations: first,to establish an early warning mechanism for international commodity prices;second,to further focus on monitoring crude oil and other international commodity prices;third,to expand the production capacity advantage of copper and other non-ferrous metal commodities;fourth,continue to vigorously promote the process of RMB internationalization. |
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