Studies Of Risk Management Of Marine Diesel Engine Development By Knowledge Engineering

This paper introduced a model based on knowledge engineering for risk management, and applied this model to the development of marine diesel engine. In the first, risk-measure frame, risk management knowledge base and risk management knowledge engineering platform based on risk management knowledge base were built and the functions were discussed one by one. With the help of computers, a risk management knowledge engineering model which can be continuously improved was eventually formed, facilitates enterprises dealing with risk management challenges. Because of so many risk factors, AHP was applied to calculate the power of each risk factor, considering the subjectivity of experts when they estimate the risk levels for risk factors, fuzzy mathematics was introduced, because the usage of fuzzy vectors to represent risk factors can avoid excessive sensitivity due to deviation of membership and influence the effectiveness of estimation. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was applied to calculate the overall risk level of project. Decision information base was built by estimating the overall risk level of case projects. Decision information base is actually the core of project risk management knowledge base, containing maximum risk level and minimum risk level for succeeded and failed projects, provided reference in judging whether the risk level for a new project can be accepted, it also provided the risk level target in choosing most suitable measures.This paper applied the risk management knowledge engineering model to the development of marine diesel engines, built the decision information base for diesel engine develop projects and confirmed it by estimating the overall risk level of case projects. Finally, estimated the risk level for a brand new dual fuel ME-GI diesel engine the company is about to develop, chose most suitable risk countermeasures according to project background, judged the risk level and practicability of developing this new project with the help of decision information base.