The Quantitative Study Of Air Transport Risk Cost Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

The air transport industry has an important influence on the future economic and social development of the industry, both in developed and developing countries have attached great importance to and fully affirmed the strategic role of the aviation industry for economic development.Chinese aviation industry has showed gratifying achievements under the guide of "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of Chinese Civil Aviation Development". China is expected to become the world’s largest air passenger market in 2020.But at the same time it appears some risk factors of the rapid development in the aviation industry.Aviation accidents, airline bankruptcy, airline fuel hedging the risk of huge losses and other events repeatedly made public.Direct consequence of the risk event is that aviation companies must undertake the loss.A variety of direct and indirect losses make air transport enterprise risk costs continue to increase and the risk of cost pressures faced by the aviation industry should not be underestimated. And risk costs even become a major obstacle to the development of the aviation industry.To seek long-term development, the effective solution to the problem is a top priority for the aviation industry.Therefore, whathas important theoretical and practical significance is that based on the air transport industry background and combined with the practice of aviation risk management and measured at cost of risk as the research focus.Firstly, starting with the basic theory of risk and risk costs,introducing the connotation of risk and the risk cost.And on this basis, exploring the relationship between risk and risk costs.Then combining the air transport industry specific characteristics, define the basic content of aviation risk and cost of aviation risks.And discuss the importance of the measurement of the cost of aviation risks.On this basis, combining the special environment of the aviation industry,analysis and inquiry the manifestations and factors of the risk cost. Finally, drawing on the existing cost of risk measurement methods and combine a variety of mathematical statistics, the author suggests the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method applied to measure the risk of the cost of research among aviation. At the same time based on practical considerations, the author improves the selection of weights in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The author builds the measurement model of risk cost and gives an example. In that way, lays the foundation for the theory and methods to explore the cost of aviation risk management in the future.