Energy Demand Prediction Under The Constraints Of Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction In China

With the rapid growth of economy, China’s energy consumption is soaring. Energy supply can’t meet the production requirements and the contradiction between energy supply and demand becomes more and more significant. Energy shortage has become one of the most important factors of restricting China’s economic and social development. Meanwhile, China has put forward the target that carbon dioxide emissions to the unit of gross domestic product in 2020 decreases by 40%-45% compared to that in 2005. China’s energy demand is facing the situation of environmental constraints in the future. Therefore, it has strong practical significance to forecast energy demand under the constraints of carbon dioxide emissions reduction.Based on the emission reduction target of carbon dioxide intensity, the model of energy demand prediction regardless of the carbon emission reduction path and the model of energy demand prediction considering carbon emission reduction path are developed. The model are applied to explore energy demand in China under the rigid constraint of reduction emissions and to analysis the evolution law of energy demand along with the carbon emission reduction path. When building the energy demand models, emissions reduction constraints, economic growth and the energy structure are chosen as the constraint condition of the model based on that the economic development, energy policy and environmental policy has an important impact on the energy demand in the future.The result shows that:the primary energy consumption in 2015 and 2020 are 3.972 billion ton of standard coal equivalent and 4.826 billion ton of standard coal equivalent; the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption decline sharply; compared with other prediction results, it is found that the effect of energy saving and energy structure adjustment is obvious under the constraints of carbon emission reduction. It is also found that carbon emissions reduction path has a significant impact on China’s energy demand and energy demand under the path at accelerated speed is higher than that under the path at slowing speed. Finally, some measures for energy development are suggested according to the empirical results.