Research On Investment Risk Management Of Changsha Rail Transit Line 2 Project

Rail transit construction project has some characteristics of a huge amount of investment, long construction period, a long payback period, high risk and so on which hinder the smooth progress of the construction of rail transit. The urban rail transit construction project investment body is a government department that shows that government investment becomes a major role in the construction of rail transit, but because of the construction of rail transit project investment and financing the main single cause to solve urban traffic demand constraints it cannot conducive to better urban rail transit construction and development of the road network. In addition, urban rail transit is a quasi-public goods, which has non-exclusive characteristics, and fare revenue and other operating income alone is difficult to quickly achieve profitability, operational phase of the project that required government financial support in order to maintain the operation. Therefore, the construction of urban rail transit project must attach importance to investment risk management issues.Based on related literature to Changsha rail transit line 2 project, intensive research, the concrete content is:The first part of this chapter 0, mainly introduced the paper research background and significance, literature review at home and abroad and the development trends and summary, the research content and research methods, technical route and innovation;At first, it related theoretical basis, mainly expounds the concept and characteristics of project risk management, the concept and characteristics of risk, the concept and characteristics of engineering project risk, project investment risk category, the concept of project risk management, the basic process of engineering project risk management, project risk management, project risk management process, the importance of risk identification, assessment and risk prevention of the process and methods; in Changsha rail transit line 2 project, the project summary of various risk factors in the whole life cycle, using the empirical study to further recognition of these risk factors, using statistical software tools for analysis, scientific classification of various risk factors, summary issued by some risk factors, provide premise conditions for risk assessment;Secondly, using statistical analysis of risk factors and various risk category, build the Changsha rail transit line no.2 engineering project investment risk management index system; in Changsha rail transit line no.2 in the engineering project investment risk evaluation main consideration:one is to use fields method to determine the incidence of the identified risk factors; Second is to use AHP (analytic hierarchy process) to determine the risk factors of loss of relative importance. To further determine the Changsha rail transit line 2 project risk level, identify key risk factors;Finally, mainly bones diagram method is used to find out the Changsha rail transit line 2 project investment risk of the detailed reasons, to identify risks before due to the elements, the use of targeted risk prevention and control measures.It mainly discussed the following aspects innovatively:(1) Preparing Changsha rail transit line 2 project investment risk formal measurement scale. By the reliability and validity testing, it is the better. The measurement scale includes a total of 14 observed variables. The study makes up for the deficiencies of the existing literature, and further enriches the project risk management theory.(2) Building Changsha rail transit line 2 project risk index system. The index system includes 3 indicators and 14 secondary indicators. The study makes up for the lack of the field of rail transit project risk management research, it has important theoretical value and significance.(3) Based on the risk measure to determine the risk of investor decision-making and the project bidding risk that are the key risks, and by the use of the fishbone diagram method the study gives the key risk refinement causes, it puts forward the risk response and control measures for the smooth implementation of the project to provide a reference value.