Analysis On The Price Fluctuation And Relationship Between Chinese Spot And Future Housing Market

Whether cancel the Pre-sale of Commercial Housing System has been the focus of social debate for a variety of problems during its implementation. So we need to know more about the relationship between the future housing market and the spot housing market, and how the future market affects the spot market.This paper main studies the relationship between the future housing price and the spot housing price of 24 provinces and municipalities in the country. Theoretical and empirical analysis some of the perspectives was included in study. Granger causality test and GARCH models were used in empirical study of relationship between the price of future housing price and spot housing price, the basic features of price fluctuations and future housing price effect on the stability of prices of spot housing price.The results showed that: There is a long-term stable relationship between future housing price and spot housing price, for most areas of the future housing prices lead the price of spot ones; from the view of fluctuations characteristics, the continued existence of volatility clustering exists both in future housing prices and spot housing prices. For most part of the sample areas, the return of the future housing price have a stabilizing effect in violating of the spot housing price. There is a simple analysis in the area which the future housing price have enhanced the spot ones.