Financial Crisis Pre-warning Model Research In Enterprise Lifecycle Perspective

With the acceleration of China’s market economy, the competition among enterprises become increasingly intense. Particularly affected by the international economic crisis, China’s enterprises are facing tremendous competition and survival challenges. When risk from all aspects accumulate to a certain extent, enterprises will be caught in the financial crisis, and face the challenges of life and death. Enterprise stakeholders doubly concerned about the problem of enterprise financial crisis, So financial crisis warning has not only theoretical value, but also practical significance to the study of the financial crisis. Previous financial crisis warning always focus on the forecast results, ignoring the financial crisis source and the formation process, therefore it can not feedback the results to the enterprise risk prevention system to be improved. Since the status quo, based on previous studies, this article firstly analyze the source and the formation of financial crisis based on incomplete contract theory, establishing a financial crisis analysis framework. Then Contact the lifecycle stage of enterprises and removal industry factors by relative value of the industry indicators. Finally establish the financial crisis pre-warning model in the enterprise lifecycle perspective. In addition, this paper, in order to demonstrate the accuracy of financial crisis pre-warning model that considering the lifecycle, established a financial crisis pre-warning model unconsider the lifecycle. Then compare the predicted results of the two models, finding that accuracy of the financial crisis pre-warning model considering lifecycle is higher. Finally, fedback the predicted results to the enterprise-wide risk prevention system, finding out the key crisis, and make improvements in order to avoid the occurrence of the financial crisis.The paper is divided into five parts. The first part introduces the concept of the financial crisis, the financial crisis pre-warning, corporate life-cycle and contract theory. The second part group of incomplete contract theory as a theoretical basis, analyze the source of the financial crisis and the formation process specifically. Then establish a financial crisis analytical framework based on incomplete contract theory. And under this framework to determine the financial crisis pre-warning indicator system. The third part through the selection of the sample of enterprises and indicators establish the pre-warning indicators of financial crisis pre-warning model without considering the lifecycle(model 1) and the financial crisis pre-warning mode consider the lifecycle(model 2); The forth part use Logistic method to train the samples, then establish financial crisis pre-warning model 1 and 2, and compare both results. The final part of this study analyze the inadequate and future research prospects hoping can be improved in future research and breakthroughs.