Study On The Financial Risk Early Warning System Of Small And Micro Enterprises

In recent years, with the slowdown in the economic development of China, under the impact of the global economic tide, the survival pressure of small and micro enterprises is increasing. Because of the enterprise scale, employee quality, financial situation, management level and other factors, small and micro enterprises are faced with no small business risk. How in the era of knowledge economy, increasing competition in the market under pressure invincible, and move towards the only way for the development and expansion of, prevent and defuse financial risks become the most important business, become urgent for small and micro enterprises to establish an effective financial early-warning system.First of all, this paper from the fruitful research results in the field of financial risk early warning at home and abroad, according to China’s Small and micro businesses the characteristics of operation ability, growth ability, solvency, profitability and other indicators; secondly, select the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 small board listed small enterprises as the research object, the Logistic regression model to build Small and micro businesses finance based on the risk early warning system; third, the accuracy of the test of the financial risk early warning system and sensitivity, the financial risk source of the effective positioning and the stage; finally, the early warning system will be compiled into a set of simple, practical financial risk warning system in the form of software programming, and as a prototype, to be perfect in the future work in practice.The research and empirical results show that logistic regression model has good performance and training sample results accuracy rate was 90%, sample test results accuracy rate was 87.5%, the rate of accuracy is high, thus to determine the final research results can be directly put into actual business.