Research Of Price Risk Control In Inventory Financing Based On VaR

Inventory financing is the key operation in supply chain finance. Especially in recent years, inventory financing mode, as a mode of operation of logistics finance, becomes more and more used by various financial institutions, loans to enterprises, logistics enterprises. Risk control is the important premise of inventory financing development. Setting reasonable pledge rate is the usually used methed. With the development of the financial liberalization, the price of risk control has become an important precondition for inventory financing development. It becomes important to analyze and measure price fluctuations for steel market correctly. Risk control for steel market has become the research focus of many scholars.The paper selects prices of the most commonly used steel thread steel (HRB400 φ20) totally 1240 numbers as the example data. The paper introduces the VaR which is the most widely used in risk measure. And uses the common historical simulation method to calculate VaR value at the loan period of 3 months,6 months,9 months and 12 months respectively in two kinds of historical data length for 150 days,300 days and three confidence level for 95%, 90%,99%. Then review test is used to checkout the result. Use the result which has passed the test to calculate the pledge rate. This pledge will be used to calculate the risk rate and efficience loss rate. At last, the result will be compared with the empirical value by 70%.Study indicates that only the three months loan period values passed the review test, and the others were not tested. Pledge rate based on the VaR not only can effectively avoid risks, but also can significantly improve the efficiency of inventory financing.