Research On Electricity Consumption Development Forecasting In Final Energy Consumption Of Shaanxi

Final energy consumption is one of the most important links of improving energy efficiency. Shaanxi’s energy resources are very rich, however, its electricity consumption level has not reached the national average. Therefore, it is necessary to do further analysis about Shaanxi’s electricity consumption in the final energy consumption.This paper analyzes the effect factors of electricity consumption from two aspects of industrial electricity and household electricity. The method of LMDI is used to decompose the factors of industrial electricity consumption into economy effect, structure effect and intensity effect. The results show that economy effect is the key factor of increasing electricity final consumption, structure effect is important to reduce the consumption, structure effect can rise the consumption generally, but its effect is not obvious. Grey correlation model is adopted to analyze the correlation between the factors and the electricity consumption of household electricity. The results show that the factors of grey correlation degree from high to low are per capita disposable income of urban residents, per capita net income of rural households, the proportion of urban population, the average household size and population. MIV-GRNN model is applied in the sensitive factor analysis. The results show that population, the average household size, the proportion of secondary industry GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry GDP are sensitive factors. Forecasting electricity consumption and its proportion for the next five years based on the historical trends and effect factors. New restrictions are added to the traditional variable weight combination model, combined with polynomial regression model, GM(1,1) model, MLR model and GRNN model, variable weight combination model is modified. Verifying test indicates that modified variable weight combination model has its significance for reference of reducing the error. The forecasting results based on this model show that it won’t reach a satisfactory level, even though the electricity consumption and its proportion for the next five years are rising.In order to improve the electricity proportion in the final energy consumption, this paper analyzes the energy alternative potential from three aspects of electrified transportation, industrial and agricultural production and electrical popularized, then it analyzes the energy alternative measures have been implemented and the challenges. Therefore, this paper makes some suggestions to expand the market of electricity consumption in Shaanxi.