Sinopec Industry Overcapacity Empirical Analysis

Under the China petrochemical industry overcapacity contradiction prominent background, highlights the complexity and arduousness of the adjustment of industrial structure, quantification of overcapacity can upgrade to provide scientific basis for optimization of industrial structure and. First by comprehensive index method and alarm according to the principle of the analysis, of petrochemical industry in the middle and lower reaches of the sample industry carry excess capacity the degree of warning, analysis of petrochemical industry overall overcapacity situation; secondly using ARIMA time series analysis model, of the sample industry to predict, determine the extent of excess production capacity trend; finally, according to the analysis and prediction results of petrochemical industry in the middle and lower reaches of the state of overcapacity draws the conclusion and puts forward policy recommendations. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1.Based on a sample of six petrochemical industry industry spanning 13 years of excess capacity analysis, the development of related upstream oil industry overcapacity in mild overcapacity in the middle range; chemical raw materials and chemical products industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical fiber manufacturing, periodic before 2008 are not time interval uniform changes as the fluctuation characteristics, with the 2008 financial crisis, the petroleum processing coking industry and chemical fiber manufacturing industry sustained serious overcapacity; downstream changes characteristics of rubber products industry overcapacity for alternative, but the plastic products industry overcapacity obvious periodical change characteristics. According to the analysis of existing data, from the entire petrochemical industry overcapacity situation, after 2010 have to break the law of cyclical changes. 2. The petrochemical industry overcapacity analysis, to predict whether the excess capacity of cyclical overcapacity is broken may. From the predicted results, the upstream obvious fluctuations, still mildly capacity excess was the main; in the middle and lower reaches of it appeared to break the phenomenon of periodic change, except for a few years in mild production capacity surplus phenomenon, mainly to serious production capacity excess. According to the petrochemical industry in the middle and lower reaches of existing statistical data and forecasting data analysis that petrochemical industry upstream sample industry production capacity surplus and, to a lesser degree; in the middle and lower reaches of the sample industry capacity surplus serious. 3.From the overall point of view, under the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the real economy, petroleum processing and coking industry, plastic products and rubber products industry production capacity excess to speed up the process of; over the next two years the prediction results show that, overcapacity in chemical raw materials and chemical products industry is cyclical degree weakened, petroleum processing and coking industry, prolonged overcapacity, petroleum processing and coking industry and chemical materials and chemical products industry compared productivity excess degree is more serious, petrochemical industry in the performance of downstream industries the capacity serious phenomenon of excess. By inference: petrochemical industry has entered a comprehensive production capacity surplus stage, the future production of petrochemical industry of our country will appear serious excess crisis, the crisis embodies the periodical characteristics inherent in the industry development, but also for the future development of the industry sounded the alarm.