The Influence Of The Shadow Banking System Of Our Country Key Macroeconomic Variables Research

In2007, Paul McCulley, the executive director of Pimco, first come up with theShadow banking. Shadow banking includes investment bank, hedge fund, monetarymarket fund, bond and insurance company, SIV and other non-bank financial institutionon the international. In China, shadow banking means a credit intermediary system,which is free from traditional banks, instead some core business of traditional banks andnot be supervised by general prudential supervision, then finish credit, mobility,maturity transformation and other activities.Shadow banking has rapidly developed these years in China, which become animportant power in the field of financial system and the whole economy, it has biginfluence on our macroscopic economic： one hand, shadow banking urges the changesin operation way and profit model of traditional banks, it provides some conditions foravoiding supervision from supervision institution and improve profit level； on theother hand, shadow banking create lots of mobility, meanwhile, weaken the value ofcredit intermediary of traditional banks. Shadow banking has big influenced on oureconomic, so researching shadow banking become more important.This article research shadow banking’s influence on some key variable of ourmacroscopic economy in theory, arranges some referred theory about shadow bankingand macroscopic economy, describes development progress and trend of China shadowbanking, measure and calculate the scale of shadow banking, analysis some problemsabout shadow banking. At the same time, in real evidence, this article use the monthlydata from2006-2014except the quarter influence, build VAR model, analysis therelationship between scale of shadow banking and key variable of macroscopiceconomy. We can get the conclusion after reading impulse response： first, scale ofshadow banking and economic growth are interplay, and economic growth has moreinfluence on scale of shadow banking； second, in the impact of interest rate, the creditscale of proper channels and scale of shadow banking are at opposite poles, it explainsthe two parts has relationship of non-correspondence； third, shadow banking hasalmost no influence on CPI index, but boom of CPI index stimulate the expansion ofshadow banking. Meanwhile, this article use real evidence to analysis and test theinfluence of shadow banking to the key variable of macroscopic economy, thereby come up with some suggestions about how to supervise shadow banking in the base of realevidence.