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After The Financial Crisis Of The Empirical Analysis Of The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

Posted on:2016-05-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:B HuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330470479195Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Monetary policy as a means of macroeconomic control of a central bank’s position in the modern market economy and more prominent. Especially since 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis first erupted in the United States, and then evolved into a global financial crisis, resulting in an international recession. Faced with the financial crisis, many countries have adopted a series of measures to control the spread of the crisis, hoping the impact of the crisis and minimize haze out of the financial crisis as soon as possible. Therefore, in the States of macroeconomic regulation by the Central Bank’s monetary policy and thus regulate the economy as the most important means of regulation. For our part, in this financial crisis, inevitably a hit. In order to reduce losses caused by the recession has taken a more relaxed monetary policy in order to promote investment-led economy. And after the financial crisis, China’s economy steady rise, there was a problem of inflation. Central bank in order to prevent inflation, curb economic overheating situation, China’s monetary policy will be adjusted by a moderately loose monetary policy steady type. Therefore, this article is through the effects of monetary policy after the financial crisis of this time interval were discussed, in order to examine the effect of the implementation of monetary policy.Meanwhile, based on considerations of reality, research on the effectiveness of monetary policy after the financial crisis requires some data indicators through empirical analysis. In this paper, the money supply, output, inflation and other indicators data, empirical research, build a VAR model, in order to identify the effectiveness of the current round of monetary policy and emerging issues and in-depth discussion. At present, China’s money supply is huge, as of the end of 2013 reached 99.86 trillion. Currency after Therefore, according to the strength of liquidity in money supply will be divided into M0, M1, M2 objectively, and then through the correlation between output and inflation were discussed, in order to identify the impact of output and inflation The key factors for the optimization and improvement of China’s monetary policy instruments to provide reasonable suggestions. Article structure are as follows:The article is divided into five parts. The first part is an introduction, the discussion of the purpose and significance of the effectiveness of monetary policy, especially after the financial crisis to sort out research and review of the monetary policy analysis and research conclusions output and inflation. The second part of the article describes the main concepts involved, mainly on currency-related research theory, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy as well as the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments involved. The third part of the analysis of the financial crisis after a complex economic environment faced by our country, the financial crisis on the economy of monetary policy adjustment and implementation. Part IV analyzes the monetary policy after the implementation effect of the financial crisis and problems. After the vector autoregression model by building on the 2008-2014 data unit root test, co-integration on the basis of long-term relationship, Granger causality analysis related variables, and then come to the increase in the money supply is not a determining factor for economic growth, but the main cause of inflation. The impulse response function analysis showed that, M2 on output in the short term have a role in promoting the long term is not significant, M0, M1, M2 impact on the price level is significant. Therefore, to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy should be price stability as the primary goal, to change the traditional way of promoting investment to boost the economy. The fifth part of the findings of the article were assessment, and to make reasonable suggestions.According to the findings of the analysis, that the impact of the financial crisis on China’s major late that inflation is not declining rate of economic growth. Therefore, in order to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, optimizing monetary policy instruments should be price stability, inflation primary principle, to prevent the economy from overheating.
Keywords/Search Tags:Monetary policy, Financial crisis, Transmission mechanism, Effectiveness, VAR model
PDF Full Text Request
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