Research On Existence Identification And Efficiency Measurement Of “fear Effect”from Antidumping Investigation

Aside from well-known effects of trade restrict, trade diversion and secondary protection, antidumping(AD) may lead to so-called “fear effect”towards third-party market for an accused country. It is a key technology to provide logistic evidence testing the existence through statistical and econometric method.Based on large amounts of data related with the cases of EU’s AD investigation against China’s seamless steel pipe and CIS countries’ AD investigation against China’s Painted Metal, this paper applied respectively chow breakpoint test, dummy variable model, Granger test and quantile regression to illustrate the judgment method of fear effect resulted from AD investigation with following thinking of“ select firstly, and then exclude” so as to both providing possible paradigm for similar situation in international trade activities and answering the question raised in the title of this article.On this basis, using the cluster analysis to measure the effect of AD investigation “fear effect”, the conclusions are as follows: EU’s AD investigation is the direct cause of Chinese seamless steel pipe exports declining sharply in the US market, this paper calls this AD investigation“fear effect”. At the same time, measuring the mainly 23 countries that Chinese seamless steel pipe exports to worldwide, found that the AD investigation “fear effect” occurs only in the United States, did not transfer to other countries.