Research On The Investment Descision Of X Company’s Vision Impaired Assistive Devices Based On Bass Model

Enterprises are an import participants and promoters of economic activity in modern economic society, for which the technological innovation is an important way in keeping their advantage positions as competing with others. However, as result of lacking sufficient historical data and its uncertainty during the new product is being under development, the people concerned are facing numerous difficulties to make strategic decisions for research projects as they are mostly dependent on the experience of managers or financial analysts conducted subjective speculation. An appropriate method or tool is significant for improving data’s reliability on more reasonable investment decided by mangers in enterprises.This paper has summarized the development of the technological innovation diffusion theory, and with this time, the BASS model family theory and its flexible extend model also have got systematically introduced from the perspective of technological innovation diffusion prediction research. The paper deems that the sorts of people with vision impaired have strong demand for the product assisting them treat information on internet, and there has a huge potential market, through analyzing this kind of product’s scale, demand, competition in China market and so on. However, currently involved in product form of competition in this market is more fragmented, with a lack of leading enterprises and products. X company’s product has certain technical and price advantage. In this paper, Diffusion action after its product put into market is calculated by means of BASS basic model, based on of the historical data of such similar product, and on this base, investment and payback are also measured and calculated. Finally, several important sensitive indexes such as NPV, the static and dynamic investment recovery period, FIRR are calculated and analyzed on the aspects of market discount rate, product price fluctuation and market sales volume fluctuation, thus the decision is made out for investment meeting company’s expectation.