Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Productive Small Enterprises Based On Maximum Information Content

Small and medium enterprises, who account for more than99%of enterprises in the whole nation in China, are significant in pushing the progress of China’s economy. Capital is the lifeblood of an enterprise’s future development. But as the unsound financial information retaining and not standardized regulations, banks do not have competent credit risk evaluation system for production-oriented small enterprises. Most of banks even do not establish such a system. This is one of the reasons why it is hard for production-oriented small enterprises to obtain loans from banks. Thus, establish of a credit risk evaluation indicators system for production-oriented small enterprises, based on default pyramid standard, which satisfies the higher the credit rating it is, the lower default loss probability will improve the loan and fund financing difficulties that production-oriented small enterprises are facing. It will also promote the production-oriented small enterprises in our country towards a path of health development.This paper establishes the production-oriented small enterprises credit evaluation indicators system by analyzing on their financial factors, non-financial factors, pledge status and using the quantitative index screening method of Kruskal-Wallis Test and Clustering-factor analysis According to the idea of the larger the averages values of variables are, the higher the degree of dispersion measurement and weights of the variables will be, the paper determines weight of indicators by coefficient of variation method, and establishes the production-oriented small enterprises credit scoring model. The paper rating1401production-oriented small enterprises into9grades by analyzing on their credit scores, principle and interest receivables and defaulted principles and interests.Main works involved in the paper:(1) Establish of production-oriented small enterprises credit evaluation indicators system consists of18indicators.Selecting the indicators that are able to significantly distinguish between default and non-default loan customers by Kruskal-Wallis Test. Clustering the indicators that reflecting duplicate information, and then selecting the indicator that contains the maximum information of every cluster. Financially, it establishes production-oriented small enterprises credit risk evaluation indicators system consists of18indicators such as increase rate of business revenue, enterprise found date, pledge score index. (2) Establish of small trade enterprises loan customer credit risk evaluation modelAccording to the idea of the larger the averages values of variables are, the higher the degree of dispersion measurement and weights of the variables will be, the paper determines weight of indicators by coefficient of variation method, determines the weights of19indicators’, establishes production-oriented small enterprises credit scoring model and compute1401production-oriented small enterprises loan customers’credit scores.(3) Implement credit rating to1401production-oriented small enterprises loan customersAccording to default pyramid standard, which satisfies the higher the credit rating it is, the lower default loss probability is, find out the results of credit rating by analyzing on their credit scores, principle and interest receivables and defaulted principles and interests by adjust customers numbers in different credit grades. Finally, classifies1401production-oriented small enterprises into AAA, AA,..., C, etc. nine credit grades.