Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Trade-oriented Small Enterprises Based On Default Distinguish Accuracy

At present, there are more than1.3million trade-oriented small enterprises paly an important role on our country’s economic development. Because of unsound financial information retaining and not standardized regulations, banks do not have competent credit risk evaluation system for trade-oriented small enterprises. Most of banks even do not establish such a system. This is one of the reasons why it is hard for trade-oriented small enterprises to obtain loans from banks. Thus, establish of a credit risk evaluation indicators system for trade-oriented small enterprises, based on default pyramid standard, which satisfies the higher the credit rating it is, the lower default loss probability will improve the loan and fund financing difficulties that trade-oriented small enterprises are facing. It will also promote the trade-oriented small enterprises in our country towards a path of health development.This paper establishes a trade-oriented small enterprises credit evaluation indicators system by analyzing on their financial factors, non-financial factors, external macro-economic conditions and pledge status. According to the idea of the larger the averages values of variables are, the higher the degree of dispersion measurement and weights of the variables will be, the paper determines weight of indicators by coefficient of variation method, and establishes trade-oriented small enterprises credit scoring model. The paper rating561trade-oriented small enterprises into9grades by analyzing on their credit scores, principle and interest receivables and defaulted principles and interests.There are4chapters in this paper. Chapter one is introduction. By analyzing the existing study on small enterprises credit evaluation and shortages in the existing study, elaborating the study background, importance of the study, study content and study frameworks. Chapter two is theory and steps of constructing trade-oriented small enterprises credit evaluation model. Chapter three is empirical study which establishes trade-oriented small enterprises credit risk evaluation system. Chapter four is main conclusion, innovation and constraints of this study.Main works involved in the paper:(1) Establish of trade-oriented small enterprises credit evaluation indicators system consists of19indicators.Selection of indicators that is able to significantly distinguish between default and non-default loan customers by default distinguish dccuracy, delete indicators reflecting redundant information by correlation analysis. It establishes trade-oriented small enterprises credit risk evaluation indicators system consists of19indicators such as capital immobilization rate, enterprise found date, industry prosperity index. (2) Establish of small trade enterprises loan customer credit risk evaluation model.According to the idea of the larger the averages values of variables are, the higher the degree of dispersion measurement and weights of the variables will be, the paper determines weight of indicators by coefficient of variation method, determines the weights of19indicators’, establishes trade-oriented small enterprises credit scoring model and compute561trade-oriented small enterprises loan customers’ credit scores.(3) Implement credit rating to561trade-oriented small enterprises loan customers.According to default pyramid standard, which satisfies the higher the credit rating it is, the lower default loss probability is, find out the results of credit rating by analyzing on their credit scores, principle and interest receivables and defaulted principles and interests by adjust customers numbers in different credit grades. Finally, classifies561trade-oriented small enterprises into AAA, AA,..., C, etc. nine credit grades.