The Multilateral Risistance And Spatial Spillover Effect Of China’s Trade And Outward Direct Investment In Africa

In the era of globalization, the relations between countries is not only affected by bilateral factors, but also influenced by other countries, namely the "Third Country Effect", so is the Sino-Africa economic and trade relations. At present, Africa has been China’s4th largest overseas investment destination and one of10largest trade partners, Meanwhile, China has been Africa’s largest trade partners for5consecutive years. Although both China and Africa have played a more and more important role in bilateral economy, and the economic and trade cooperation between them is influenced by "Multilateral Resistance". The major power engaged in fierce competition over energy, resources, and huge market, each of them attempts to eat a piece of cake in this continent. Collaboration and corporation is co-existed in the course of their competition.This thesis focused on the major power’s trade with African countries and foreign direct investment in African continent. The trade and investment flows between33important African countries and6powerful countries from2003to2012as sample data in the empirical research part. Moreover, the paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolving characteristics, influential factors, and the interaction effects of trade and investment flows between major countries. Firstly, this dissertation use both time and space dimension to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution process of China’s trade and investment flows with African countries, which figures out that it differs in volume and growth rate from regions to regions,and what’s more, the global financial crisis has negative shocks to the these flows Secondly, A little bit more advanced spatial econometric technique is used in this paper to analyze the factors that influence trade and investment volume, which is quite different with the OLS regression model. The "Third Country Effect" is verified by regression results, which is also extremely significant, and the China’s investment in Africa could be confirmed as Complex-Vertical mode. The analysis based on influential factors show that China’s investment in Africa has both market-seeking and resource-seeking motivation, Either the openness degree or investment freedom degree or infrastructure have some effects on China’s investment in Africa, So do other spatial lagged dependent variables and spatial lagged independent variables. the effect the latter one can also be called spatial spillover effect.Then the interaction effects of trade between6great powers and African countries is taken in account in the5th chapter.The spatial econometric regression model is also used to found whether there is competition effect or complementary effect. The empirical result show complementary effect whether export or import, even total trade. The dynamic analysis declare that this complementary effect doesn’t change a lot in the time span of sample data.and the order of these complementary effect from large to small is export-total trade-import. The robust analysis based on different spatial weight matrix indicate that the spatial dependence of trade and investment is still significant, other conclusions in the paper are also supported.