Research On The Control Of Medical Insurance Expenditure In Dalian Based On System Dynamics

Since the20th century, with the development of economy, society, population changeand the progress of medical high-tech, rising health care costs has become a problem aroundthe world. And since the new health care reform2009in our country, the problem of how tocontrol the unreasonable rise in health insurance costs and how to solve the expensive healthfees have become a top priority in the current medical and health system reform. But becauseof medical insurance expenses control is a multi-stakeholder, inescapably involved systemcharacteristics, its control mechanism needs systemic thinking.This study through the system dynamics modeling method to study the mechanism ofmedical insurance cost control, aimed at deepening our universal health care coverage depthand height, further reduce the burden of the people to see the doctor, and provide theoreticalreference for academic research and policy making. Research, which is based on macro healthsystem model and the theoretical basis of system dynamics, through literature induction,expert consultation method, has conducted systematic research on the problem of health carecosts control in Dalian.The article is divided into five parts. The first part expounds the research background,significance, purpose and literature review, and briefly describes the research contents,technical route and related content. The second and third parts have a descriptive analysis onhealth care costs control system in Dalian, map out the system boundary, and medical carecost controlling system conceptual model diagram in Dalian, and medical insurancemanagement center of human resources and social security bureau as the breakthrough pointof the system logic model diagram, which laid a foundation for building the system dynamicmodel. The fourth part has carried on the quantitative analysis of health care cost control,based on qualitative analysis with2008Dalian statistical yearbook and statistical yearbook2010Dalian as the historical data, draw the system flow diagram, and import the functionexpression and detection system dynamics model was established with the run. Finally, thefifth part analysis conclusion and prospection, predictive Medical spending per person peryear and home health care consumer Engel’s coefficient will continue to rise rapidly, expectedannual medical consumer spending to reach3645.0Yuan, family Engel coefficient will rise to3.6%in2027. Among them, both doctors overseers control coefficient and the proportion of government financial aid are the most significant impact on health care costs control andsuggested that the government and human resources and social security bureau and otherrelevant departments pay more attention to in the medical insurance fee policy controloverseers control of both doctors and fiscal subsidy ratio measurement.