The Sustainable Development Of Labor Force In Manufacturing After Demographic Dividend

Since china adopted reformation and open-up policy, China’s manufacturing industry relying on labor cost advantage, quickly promoted the growth of the national economy, and began to play an important role in the global manufacturing. It was relatively rich labor and cheap labor cost that made china a strong manufacturing power. It was depended on the favorable dividend period that china was in that provided China opportunities to release labor potential. However, the current utilization and development of labor resource presents a sharpen situation for supporting the manufacturing.Researching the current situation of manufacturing labor resources development needs to make clear that how the labor demand change with Manufacturing upgrade processing, and how the labor supply change in the future market, so as to help decision makers in the manufacturing industry upgrade policy or put forward the development strategy of manufacturing from the perspective of labor inputs.The paper applies the ARMA model for forecasting the number of China’s manufacturing labor demand over the next20years. And then this paper analyzes the working age population in our country in the future, labor participation rate and labor population decline trend, points out that the labor shortage about the future of China will be a real problem, based on which the number of the labor supplement is forecasted.This paper analyses China’s manufacturing workforce quality defects from labor gap, cost, liquidity and social attribute. Those factors influence the sustainable effective of labor, and based on these the Chinese manufacturing labor sustainable cultivate strategic ideas and policy are put forward.