Research On The Impact Of The Shadow Banking On The Stability Of The Banking System In China

After the outbreak of financial crisis in America in2008, the shadow Banking begins to enter people’s vision and intrigue people to study it. In the meantime, inflationary pressure is appearing gradually after the four trillion economic stimulus plan in China. In addition, The popular events such as private lending crisis in Ordos, the run on the Huaxia bank of Shanghai branch, the case of Wu Ying and so on intrigue scholars’ interest in shadow banks. In essence, the shadow banking is a new type of credit relationship, and it’s more hidden than tradition commercial banks. What’s more, as part of financial system, it is not only different from traditional commercial banks, but also related to traditional commercial banks. They not only compete with each other, but also depend on each other. Therefore, the shadow banking may have impact on commercial banks stability.Based on the theoretical analysis of shadow banking and commercial banks stability, this thesis measures the size of shadow banking and commercial banks stability, establishes the multiple regression model, uses regression analysis and granger causality test to research the impact of the shadow banking on the commercial banks stability. The research concludes are as follows:(1) The size of shadow banking is huge in China, and the growth rate is quick in recent years.(2) Observed from the overall trend, the changing of bank comprehensive risk index is not obvious, the commercial banks stability is good. What’s more, the international major events have impact on commercial banks stability.(3)There is a two-way granger causality relation between the shadow banking and commercial banks stability.(4) There is an threshold effect between the shadow banking and commercial banks stability because of the dualism of shadow banking system. In order to keep stability of commercial banks, we should control the size of shadow banks in reasonable scope.