An Empirical Study Of Commercial Bank Personal Mortgage Default Risk

since China’s housing system reform started in1998, China’s personal housing mortgage loans (hereinafter referred to as the individual housing loans) provides a huge financial support for housing consumption and economic development. With the rapid development of individual mortgage business, loan default risk is increasing. At present, China’s Banks are generally aware of the importance of strengthening personal mortgage default risk management, and academia also gave some focus on the problem, but to the empirical study of individual mortgage default risk is relatively lacking. Based on the background above, the paper on the influence factors of individual mortgage default risk as the main research object, is trying to identify the main factors influencing individual mortgage default risk in our country at present stage, and lay the foundation of the theory and method, which can effectively manage the risk of default, for the commercial Banks at the beginning of the personal mortgage lending.The analysis of personal housing mortgage loan risk in our country are often from the Angle of the bank, in accordance with the internal operation process, the borrower repayment capability assessment and disposal of the mortgaged property and so on. So the range of analysis is relatively narrow, and theoretical research, practical operational risk evaluation model is less. Based on the literature at home and abroad experience and combining with the actual situation of sample data, the characters of borrowers, lending, real estate characteristics and regional characteristics is four dimensions to choosel8variables, which are age, marital status, working years, record of formal schooling, whether locals, monthly payments, overdue periods, monthly repayment ratio, loan to value ratio, loan term and loan interest rate value, reimbursement way, house price index and housing area, using logistic model to explore and identify the influencing factors of the personal housing mortgage loan default risk and default risk classification. And at the same time in the default risk analysis, we distinguish the substantial default and overdue. The main conclusions are as follows:The main influencing factors of the personal housing mortgage loan default risk are obtained by empirical testing.Considering the prediction accuracy of the model, accuracy of the Logistic regression model in the personal housing mortgage loan default risk prediction is above80%, and the stability of the mode is also good. Logistic model has strong explanatory power on default risk, which provides a theoretical model for bank credit decisions.(3) Based on the empirical testing, the paper analyzes the influences of various factors or the original variables on personal housing mortgage loan default risk’s size and direction. There are many factors that affect personal housing mortgage defaults, but there are huge differences in the impact of these factors. Some are relatively important factors, the influence of some factors sometimes is negligible. Although the factors in determining the importance of personal housing mortgage loan default risk degree are different, but whether the personal housing mortgage loan default is a result of the combined action of these factors. Therefore, before review the borrower’s credit certificate and post-loan credit management, the commercial Banks should focus on those key factors that affects the risk of default condition, and also consider the influence of other factors, to investigate on the credit of the borrowers comprehensively, thus ensure the quality of credit assets.