Research On The Commercial Housing Price Forecast Of The Third-tier Cities Based On Rough Set

In recent years, in China the real estate industry has been rapid development, the scale ofthe real estate market is gradually expanding. But because of the real estate itself has anon-movable, the development cycle and the use cycle is long, large investment and othercharacteristics, the real estate market is a strong regional and imperfectly competitive market,the existing real estate market major development of the commodity residential house, so thecommercial housing price is also affected by these characteristics. As everyone knows thecommercial housing price of the first-tier cities and the second-tier cities is high, the housingprices of the developping third-tier cities also affected by the continued growth of hightemperature of the national house prices, it is soaring. However, the economic level and theurban planning of the third-tier cities is not better than the first-tier cities and the second-tiercities, so it always be ignored, the price are likely to appear unhealthy growth. Therefore,ifwe control the prices effectively, which will be beneficial to the commodity housing markethealthy and stable development, so we must have a in-depth knowledge about the foctorswhich must influence on the commercial housing prices of the third-tier cities, and choose thepredict model of the future prices and though these we can understand its developing trend.Therefore, in this paper, I get though the theoretical research and empirical research on thecommercial housing price influence factors and the house prices forecast to hope to be able tohave a certainly understanding about the commercial housing market of the third-tier city.In this paper, I take Ganzhou as a typical form of the third-tier city to study thecommercial housing price forecast model of the third-tier cities. First of all, we have ain-depth exposition on the the development of the real estate. And start to discussed in detailon the theoretical concepts and features of the real estate, the real estate prices and thecommodity housing market. And also to analyse the difference between the commodityresidential house and the existing housing system. Then to ganzhou city as an example, I geta qualitative analysis of the nine factors influencing the Ganzhou’s commodity housingprices, and establishes a index system of influence factors of the third-tier cities’ commodityhousing prices. Then we select the research methods to used in this paper, and also introducedthe the traditional methods of forecasting prices, combined with the characteristics of thethird-tier cities’ commodity housing market, I proposed the third-tier cities’commodityhousing prices forecast based on RS-BPNN model. Finally, I used the software of SPSS13.0 for Windows statistical analysis, Rosetta software MATLAB7.0software tools for theempirical analysis on the third-tier cities’commodity housing prices forecast based onRS-BPNN model. By the results of the empirical analysis, we can see that the model has agood operability, the forecast effect is good and it has a certain application value.