| Nowadays economic globalization has rapid development, and connection of economic, politic and culture have been developed to close state among countries all over the world. Development’s speed of the most important financial sector is very fast, and globalization get into various countries and industries, which has formed a whole world. If financial industry has the health development in the various countries, which must be beneficial to promote the development of other industries, and the relationship makes the favorable development that countries’development will be conducive to the development of the world. But it is precisely that this interconnected world economy makes the destructive economic crisis strong. For example American subprime mortgage crisis, which results from that American financial institutions use a lot of financial derivatives and financial derivatives among these American financial institutions lend to each other and guarantee, result in a large number of mixed assets containing non-performing assets. Because financial institutions has been developed to a very close degree, and when the financial crisis appears, the financial crisis’spread is very fast, which not only makes the USA economy suffer a huge blow, also has affected most of the countries and regions in the world, and eventually leading to sag of the world economy in the next few years. From this financial crisis we would know that the necessity of study financial risk system, and the various countries in the world must have a more effective financial crisis prevention.Before the USA loan crisis some scholars have been studying the financial systemic risk. More scholars joined the study of financial systemic risk after USA subprime crisis, but accurate definition of financial system risk has not reached a unified opinion, but this does not affect the research of Finance systemic risk. Some foreign scholars first began to study the financial systemic risk, research methods include value at risk method, this method use conditional value at risk to analyze and study the systematic financial risk, and the aim is to detect the systemic risk of a financial institution’s marginal contribution to the total risk the financial system risk estimation. The monitoring data can help regulators to be better; the more common method and expected marginal loss method, this method is focused on the analysis of effect of a single mechanism of financial crisis. Using the marginal expected loss method can measure up to the contribution of a financial institution to the total risk of the system; the contribution of higher illustrate the financial institutions total risk contribution of the financial system the greater the degree of financial institutions, so if the control of contribution degree more high intuition is not good, when the high contribution degree of occurrence of financial institutions bad debts and even appeared in bankruptcy, it is easier to cause a region or even a country’s financial crisis, the financial crisis will even bring immeasurable economic system on the destruction of the world.In order to prevent the occurrence of financial crisis, let the national economy have a healthy development and let the world’s economic healthily run down. Regulators must have real-time monitoring of the financial system risk, or formulate a more effective early warning system to predict the financial crisis which may happen in the future. Bank can have some time to advance the development of some monetary policy on the economy of a country to cushion the financial crisis brought about the destruction of the national economy, which avoid suffer huge impact as soon as possible out of the shadow of financial crisis, and it can develop well again; so in order to avoid another financial crisis caused great damage, at present it is very necessary to formulate a set of financial crisis early warning scheme.This paper firstly collected historically financial data of financial institutions, which are monthly returns of thirty largest financial institutions in2007-2014, which are divided into three types:banks, funds, securities companies. Then using the method of principal component analysis and Granger causality test model to measure the degree of relevance of the30Chinese publicly listed financial institutions2007-2014. Principal component analysis is to calculate the characteristic values between all financial institutions in the sample in time segment size, the correlation can represent all the financial institutions here characteristic value; risk contribution rate of PCAS are calculated, each institution of the financial systemic risk contribution, the contribution rate represents the effects of financial institutions on the size of the financial crisis. Granger causality test is the main test among financial institutions which have no causal relationship. The number of the causal statistical, also compared the number of causal relationship between different time and in different departments, comparing the results obtained in the number of the number of causal relation causal relationship between financial crisis period was greater than in non crisis periods. China’s banking industry contribution to systemic risk rate than other financial institutions had a larger contribution of systemic risk securities, the contribution rate of the minimum. The main reason is that the high economic growth requires a large amount of financing, and the bank plays the most important role, followed by enterprise direct financing difficulty caused by the excessive reliance on bank financing. In addition, the international capital inflows slowly to a certain extent also explained China’s Banking Systemic Risk contribution rate since the second half of2011once again increase. Time series on the systematic study of the various financial institutions risk contribution rate, on the sequence were estimated, the results showed the systemic risk contribution of various financial institutions in2007during the financial crisis was systemic risk other than age should be high contribution rate. But attention is required, since July2012, systemic risk contribution of China’s financial institutions appeared increasing trend, the need to focus on the risk of China’s banking industry control. |
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