Based On The Empirical Analysis And Prediction Of Zhengzhou Commodity House Average Price

Real estate is an important pillar industry in the development of our national economy, as well as the foundation for people’s survival and development, Following the rapid economic development, the real estate market also booming, and present a rising trend. In recent years, housing prices present a rapidly rising trend, although the government has adopted a series of measures to stabilize housing prices, prices are still high, a lot of people can’t afford to buy a house, it has become a pressing social problem.As a result, the problem of commodity house prices quickly rising has attracted universal attention, the influencing factors of prices changes and their impact on housing prices become the focus of attention problems.This article mainly by the Zhengzhou commodity housing average prices as the dependent variable, first of all, through the establishment of Polynomial Distributed Lags Model:lprice1=-3.1108lpopulation,+2.8125lpopulation1-1-0.37larer1-1+1.9045lincomel, t:(-3.6194) (3.2930) (-4.1641) (10.0253) R2= 0.9916 R-0.9873 SE= 0.0302 DW= 3.0346Find out the three main factors affecting housing prices, including the disposable income, the resident population, the available residential area, analyze the degree of their effects on Zhengzhou housing prices, and accurately predicting the Zhengzhou commodity housing price of 2014 is price22014= pricel2014 * p782014= 8206.6 yuan/square metre. Secondly, the paper using Grey Prediction Model more accurately predict the future years of Zhengzhou commodity housing average prices and prices movements, on the basis of this also verity the rigor, accuracy and reliability of the model Finally, according to the relevant economic theory and quantitative analysis, the article also puts forward some reasonable policy recommendations to stable prices.