| After the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, people began to pay attention to the development of the shadow banks. In China, in order to avoid regulation, Commercial Banks develop business and lend to the restrictive-loan industry indirectly through parts of shadow banking channel, which can enhance competitiveness. But the Banks are faced with credit risk, operational risk and so on. Moreover, such as private lending, parts of shadow banking impact the loan business of commercial Banks. This reflects that the shadow Banks’ impacts on the stability of commercial Banks are always two sides. Commercial Banks are the center and the hub of the entire financial system, whose stability affects the stability of the overall financial system. So, the research of how shadow banks affect the commercial banks’stability has great practical significance, which provides theoretical basis for the objective and fair view about shadow Banks and commercial Banks and plays a guiding role of standardizing and developing the shadow banking system to enhance stability of commercial bank.In the perspective of commercial bank, shadow Banks in China can be divided into two parts, the external and internal shadow banking. Shadow banking has a rapidly rising trend, reached 26.76 trillion Yuan in 2013, and internal shadow banking is greater. This article uses the bank bankruptcy probability model Z index to measure individual bank stability, found that China’s banking industry was more and more stable, and each bank’s stability trends are basically identical. From the banking business level, the profit level and risk level, this paper analyses qualitatively the way shadow banks affect the stability of commercial banks. Based on above analysis, we construct two related panel models studies the relations, and draw two empirical conclusions:(1) while the relative scale of shadow banking increases, the bank assets will weaken, thereby reducing bank stability; (2) while the relative scale of shadow banking increases, the profitability of the Banks will improve and non-performing loan ratio will reduce, thereby enhancing bank stability. So, this paper holds that the development of the shadow banks stability brings both advantages and disadvantages to commercial banks. On the one hand, parts of the shadow banking products increase the middle income of commercial Banks, and help Banks active management of credit risk, thereby improving bank stability. On the other hand, the development of shadow banking business squeezes the traditional bank loan business, and make the management mode of commercial Banks which relies on enlarging the scale of assets lose advantage, thereby reducing bank stability.Finally, the article puts forward to carry out the monitoring statistics caliber of shadow banking as soon as possible, and make relevant regulatory authorities and responsibilities clear to guide the shadow banking development, at the same time, pay attention to ensure quality of the shadow banking system assets. Commercial Banks can make full use of shadow banking products such as asset securitization to manage credit assets, which can spread risk, and increase revenue. |
