Risk Assessment Of The Strategic Precinct For Aluminum Ore Resources Overseas’ Exploitation

This paper originates from the humanities and social sciences research project funds projects of the Ministry of education which is named the important mineral resources development strategy selection of overseas risk assessment techniques(Item number: 12YJA790208). The paper takes the risk assessment of the strategic precinct for aluminum ore resources’ overseas exploitation as the research object, on the basis of the detailed overview of the research progress at home and abroad of the location and risk management theory, comprehensive study on the risk assessment of the strategic precinct for aluminum ore resources’overseas exploitation with the application methods of the combining theoretical research and case studies and combining qualitative and quantitative research. The main contents and conclusions of the paper are as follows.First of all, this paper detailed summarizes the research achievements of location ant risk management theory at home and abroad, the location selection and risk assessment of mineral resources as well.Secondly, this paper analyzed deeply aluminum ore resources supply and demand of our country, founding that though our country has rich aluminum resources reserves, has a large scale of demand and import, high foreign trade dependence, and a single import source. The aluminum demand scenarios model which was established based on BP artificial neural network, measured the apparent consumption of aluminum resources from 2014 to 2020, combining with the regression analysis method measuring our country’s future foreign trade dependency of aluminum resources.Thirdly, this paper identified the main risks of strategic precinct for aluminum ore resources overseas exploitation by Delphi method and built the risk assessment index system which contains 8 level indicators and 25 secondary indicators. Introducing the cloud theory into the Matter-element theory and calculating the risk grade of membership using Matlab software, this paper established the risk assessment model of aluminum ore resources overseas exploitation based on the theory of the cloud and Matter-element.Fourthly, selecting the 13 main countries which aluminum resources are relatively rich as application object assessed and analyzed the 13 countries in detailed by using the above model. The results showed that:Australia and United States are in a state of low risk; Brazil, Guyana, India, Kazakhstan are in a state of lower risk; Vietnam, Suriname and Russia are in the general risk statue; Guinea, Jamaica, Greece are in the higher risk statue; Venezuela is inThe high risk statue. Besides,13 countries’ cloud and Matter-model of the assessment results were analyzed in detail from the angle of strategy precinct risks.The results show that:the framework and theory model constructed in the paper has some theoretical and practical application values, and can provide the corresponding theoretical basis and decision support methods for the development of Chinese overseas aluminum resources.