| Since the reform and opening up,China’s grain circulation system has experienced through several phases,from state monopoly of the purchase and marketing,to double track approach,and finally to the complete marketization of grain purchase and sale,our steps in China’s grain market reform have never been ceased.Specifically,China’s first policy of 2014 has put forward that,"adhere to the principle of market pricing,explore and promote the reform of the decoupling between the agricultural products price formation mechanism and government subsidies,and gradually establish a system of agricultural product price target. "Moreover,the government has decided to implement the"target price"instead of the previous"minimum purchase prices" in cotton in Xin Jiang,soybean in northeast China and Inner Mongolia,which indicated the reform of marketization of grain price is about to start.Because the price mechanism is at the early stage of market-oriented reform,and has not been polished,the frequent grain price volatility has been touching the nerve of the reformers.Sorting out the grain price transmission effect is of both great theoretical and practical significance in solving the grain price volatility and transmission problem,comprehending the grain market operation rules,coordinating the interests between peasants and enterprises, enhancing the pertinence and effectiveness of government intervention,and solving the problem of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers".This paper firstly concludes the literature review about the price conduction and agricultural products price transmission correlation study.Constructing an analysis framework of this article.Based on the perspective industrial chain,this paper selects the agricultural price index,grain price index,refined grain or grain price index as the representative data.Through the chart,correlation coefficient and CV coefficient of variation,this paper analysis the China’s grain industry chain longitudinal conduction status,and found that the existence of asymmetric conduction phenomenon in grain industry chain.Due to Johansen cointegration test,this paper found that each link of all kinds of food industry exists cointegration relationship except soybean in the long term.By Granger causality test,the grain prices of middle link are one-way to the agricultural price in the upstream link.And the transmission of some varieties of grain between downstream link and midstream link are one-way. There are asymmetric transmission phenomenon between the upstream,midstream and downstream.Then through the establishment of error correction model to obtain all the food industry chain error correction coefficient,we found that in the short term,different varieties of grain by external shocks,would be back to the original cointegration relationship,but their speed is different.Through the variance decomposition,in the short term,this paper found that Agricultural prices have limited impact on the prices of downstream product. Grain prices have great impact on the prices of downstream refined grain or food products.There are also asymmetric price transmission phenomenon in the short term.Finally,based on the empirical research results,from the perspective of market structure,government intervention and the structural imbalance between supply and demand,these views can well explain the the asymmetric conduction phenomenon of our country food prices appear longitudinal conduction effect in the long term and short term.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward several proposals:from the perspective of industry chain to improve the existing price stabilization mechanism,establish a high efficient and perfect grain price emergency mechanism,strengthen the connection between all aspects of food industry chain.These proposals will make China’s grain price transfer more regular and will contribute to speed up the reform of the grain market prices. |
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