Research Of Warning Of Financial Crisis Of Listed Company In Post Financial Crisis Era

Since the appearance of the financial crisis, the international economic order has presented with an innovative situation along with the development of financial globalization and market integration. On one hand, it can prompt the integration of global resources, which not only increase financial efficiency, but also establishes a more flexible and compatible global financial system. On the other hand, it spreads the risk rapidly and will go global. The real economy suffers greatly from the impact of the financial crisis. The sense of crisis plays the key role in the enterprise survive and development. Before crisis comes, the rapid risk-aversion is a priority for the investor, enterprise and even the country. When a bird’s nest is overturned, no egg can remain intact. When faced with complicated market economy, warning of financial crisis is extra important for the public company in post financial crisisThe real estate industry is a pillar one in national economy, including building materials, iron and steel, hardware and so on. People pays extra attention to the public real estate company for its great effect and wide range. For the public real estate company is a typical capital intensive enterprise, it has the characteristics of large initial investment, long funds occupation, long turnover duration and high investment risk, which makes the company lack working capital fund, depend on bank loan heavily and hold high asset-liability ratio. Since post financial crisis era, our nation has published many policies to carry out macro-control on the real estate industry. It aims to reduce financial risk, keep self-development of the real estate industry. The paper summaries the research results at home and abroad. According to the results of time Sequence Analysis, using the year of 2009 as the time bound of post financial crisis era, it analyzes the reason and character of financial crisis in the real estate industry. Through the comprehensive financial-forecast of the public real estate companies in 2014, the paper also analyzes the key preventive factors in the financial crisis of the real estate industry, and establishes an effective model for financial warning in post financial crisis era.The paper is made up of five sections. The first one includes the background, the theoretical significance and the application value, it also indicates the research ideas, methods and innovation points of this article. The second part describes the financial crisis theory in combination of related assays, covering the phase definition, review of the theory and research trends. The third part introduces the relationship between the financial crisis and the financial risk in the real estate according to its current situation and character. It also analyzes comprehensively the influencing factors of warning of the financial crisis, including the policy, the economic situation, the financial environment and the market supply and demand at macro level, the industrial character at medium level, the analysis of ration of finance and non-finance at micro level. The fourth part is the empirical study of the warning of financial crisis, stating the model choice, sample selection and data source. By applying the statistical software of SPSS 19.0 to screen the data index.Through 36 research indicators descriptive analysis and significance tests, At last,I selected 22 indexes of significance to establish Logistic warning model,by model discrimination ability test and goodness of fit test, model predictive accuracy rate reached 92.5%. And the last one makes a conclusion of the research, puts forward the appropriate measures and makes prospect in the future development.The research conclusion of this paper provides basis for financial warning in public real estate companies in post crisis era, hoping it can also provide empirical evidence and application value of risk-prevention in real estate industrial finance.