Research Of P2P Network Financial Industry Investment Decision-making Based On Real Option Theory

P2P financial is based on computer network and the formation of a new type of financial service pattern, the nature of the business are mostly belongs to the small folk lending, its form is simple and provides individuals and small micro enterprise for a new financing channels, as well as provides microfinance for a very good investment channels. P2P network financial provides great convenience for clients, it is a beneficial supplement of the existing banking system. In 2007, the first P2P lending platform running in our country, since then the P2P network financial firms of our country have sprung up one after another, and its development trend, transaction scale, influence scope all witness a great growth.But in our country the related laws and regulations of P2P network financial industry at present also belongs to the blank, and the credit system of individual citizensis not perfect, so the future of the P2P network financial industry in our country is uncertain. If use traditional investment decision analysis method to analyze P2P network financial industry investment, the value of such projects Certainly can’t be assessreasonable. So we should be according to the characteristics of P2P network financial industry to make a scientific analysis and evaluation.Based on existing research, this paper firstly points out that the defects of traditional investment decision theory in the analysis of investment projects which has much uncertainty factors. And then this paper will introduce the theory of real options, and expounds the applicability and superiority of the theory in the analysis of such investments. The first step is description of the present situation for the P2P network financial industry, and detailed analysis its contains type of option, points out the necessity of introducing the theory of real options. Then we will introduce the binary tree based on thereal option pricing theory, and according to the different stages of P2P network financial industry investment project to establish the pricing model forthe project, at the same time points out the investment decision rules on different stages of P2P network financial industry project. At the end of this paper we introduce a case to make an empirical analysis, and verify this model. In this case we narrate the increase value of project from unccrtaintyand the investment decision-making strategies under different conditions.