The Study On The Risk Warning Of Chinese Personal Account Of Pensions Entering The Capital Market

The pension is to guarantee the retirees’ survival and the qualit y of life, and it can play an important role in stabilizing the social order. After C hinese pension?s frequently reforming, Chinese pension system still has serious problems such as low efficiency of investment and operation, lack of method of protecting and growing wealth.Currently, due to the imperfections in the design of the pension system, the unreasonable set of the proportion of payment, coupled with the change of the population structure in recent years and early retirement and double track system, they cause the gap of pension bigger and bigger. This goes against the original intention of the establishment of the pension system, puts a greater financial strain on government, and increases the risk of protecting and growing wealth of pension. Pension enters the capital market has gradually begun pilot, the academic research for the entering the capital market is still in the exploratory stage. Therefore, the key to guarantee the sustainable development of China’s pension system is to research on the risks of personal pension account entering the capital market, opens the gate of pension personal account entering to the capital market in order to reach pension profit goals in the circumstances of safety.Discussion and Analysis on present situation of China’s pension investment management theory and personal account entering the capital market are based on combing the domestic and international related research theory. And this paper will make an assessment of the risk of personal account of pension entering the capital market. Building a forewarning index system, to construct a complete forewarning system. Finally sets the warning limit, and making recommendations and countermeasures for risk control and precaution of personal account entering capita l market. This paper explores the following issues:(1) Analysis of the current situation and feasibility of personal account of pension entering capital market.Through the analysis of the existing scale and the investment share, investment channels of pension to summarizes the current situation of pension personal account entering capital market. This paper will card the history of the development of pension entering capital market and analyzing the risk. Finally, analyze feasibility of social security fund entering capital market based on Granger causality test. Come to conclusion that the feasibility of pension personal account entering capital market.(2) Risk assessment of pension personal account entering capital market based on Va R model.Due to the personal account of pension has not really into the capital market, but social security fund has, and the essence of two fund is the same. Risk assessment of social security fund which has into capital market based on Va R model, to reference pension personal account entering capital market.(3) Study on the selection of the warning indicators of pension personal account entering capital market and the establishment of forewarning system.Firstly, Making an in-depth analysis of risk factors of pension personal account entering capital market, selecting the forewarning indicators and building indicator system. Secondly, building forewarning system according to the indicator system: selecting optimal indicators by TOPSIS model, building forewarning system by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. At last, empirical analysis of forewarning system To verify the feasibility.(4) Countermeasures and suggestions of risk control of pension personal account entering capital market.This paper will advance corresponding suggestion by summary conclusion based on the research above and draw lessons from the western advanced risk prevention experiences.