The Actuarial Prediction And Research On The Fund Of The Basic Medical Insurancein Shandong Province

As is known to all, the fund of the social insurance is the pension money, the lifeline,and it is the foundation of a stability social. Along with the development of the era, the fund is facing population increase, environmental degradation, improvement of the medical expense and a series of challenges. Whether the social insurance fund can maintain a healthy and sustainable developmen in the futuret,we need the actuarial analysis to explore the answers.This article explore the influence factors of this system based on the analysised of the current primary medical system of Shandong province, establish an actuarial model,analysis and predict the basic medical insurance plan of Shandong province as a whole fund account balances from 2015 to 2030, grasp the trend of the basic medical insurance payment in the future, analysis the key factors to suggest the corresponding countermeasures.In order to keep the town worker medical treatment as a whole fund account balance of payments, and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the system of medical insurance. Concrete structure is as follows:The first chapter is an introduction, This part mainly introduces the real background of the research 、the method used in this study and the meaning of the study. Through the research of the domestic and foreign research,I want to establish its own innovation.The second chapter is the present situation of basic medical treatment insurance in Shandong province. In order to find problems and establish an actuarial model, this part of the paper introduces the present situation of basic medical treatment insurance in Shandong province.The third chapter is the rediction of insurance balance scale in primary medical treatment. By using the principle of the actuarial, establish the basic medical insurance actuarial model as a whole account balances, and by using the basis of relevant data of the sixth census, forecast actuarial account balance of the funds in 2015-2030.Through the fourth chapter,I forecast and analysis of the basic medical insurance plan as a whole account income gap. On the basis of the prediction results to plan as a whole account income gap is analyzed, and several important factors in the sensitivity analysis,provides further summary and analysis with data support. In the balance of the basic medical insurance plan as a whole account I analyze the overall account of income gap.The fifth chapter is the research conclusions and policy recommendations. This part summarizes the research conclusion, analysis the budget problems in the process, and put forward corresponding suggestions.