The Empirical Study Of Human Capital And Economic Development In An Hui Province

Located in the hinterland of east China, An Hui province has always had the rich resources of science and education, including nearly 100 colleges and universities represented by China university of science and technology; With 31 academicians from Chinese academy of sciences and Chinese academy of engineering, at the top of the central region; The number of selected in the innovation groups of National natural science fund and "One hundred plan" of the Chinese academy of sciences ranks first in the central city area; Such a great high quality human resources, how to promote the economic growth of high quality; With the help of eviews software measurement, this paper uses the natural logarithm variable co-integration regression method, combining with the production function and Lucas’ human capital overflow model for analyzing economic development and material capital and human capital elements respectively, and the relationship among them, three economic growth models were built, because of the serial correlation in panel data, unit root tests are carried out in view of the human capital and material capital elements and the economic growth represented by GDP in this paper. It is concluded that each single element is smooth in the natural logarithm of the first-order differential unit root, and the third model meet the cointegration, So this paper mainly take the third model as the economic growth model. In addition, the economic growth speed formula is built based on the Solow Residual theory, human capital spillover being incorporated in the framework for analysis, In the meanwhile the human capital is divided into direct and indirect human capital. The analysis of each factor is given in three periods:the year of 1978 to the year 1989 and the year of 1990 to the year 2001 and the year of 2002 to the year 2012,direct human capital and indirect human capital, technical progress and physical capital these four key elements are calculated in the view of the proportion of the contribution rate of economic growth in Anhui province, thus carrying out the empirical analysis of the city economy development of Anhui province from 1978 to 2012.The main conclusions:First, the economic output in Anhui province contains almost five sources, namely, technology progress and labor, physical capital inputs and accumulation of human capital and human capital spillover; Second, in the economic development model of Anhui province has concluded that first order difference level is stable in single element, the third model namely human capital spillover model is the cointegrate one, so we can use the model to analyze the marginal rate of key variables, calculating the economic growth rate, then the direct contribution of human capital, the indirect contribution of human capital,physical capital contribution The marginal efficiency of the general human capital to the output of local government is more than that of the labor and material capital, but for a long time local government policy implementation in the talents cultivation is not enough; Third, in the analysis period, the long-term change trend of the variables is consistent, which means significant inverted u-shaped:growth - recession - and recovery. There are all kinds of reasons to explain that, but it hard to find, this is worth exploring. The primary source of growth in output of An Hui province is the change of total factor productivity, on the one hand, the growth of total factor productivity is mainly due to the role of technological progress, human capital quality improvement will help to improve technology progress, at the same time, most of proportion of material capital, such as after 2001,the economic growth in Anhui province is becoming more and more relied on the increase of material inputs, but contribution rate of human capital grew steadily, effect in the human capital per capita is concealment. Finally summed up from the Chinese human capital report 2013 in an hui province,in the period of the year of 1985 to 2010, analyzing the real per capita human capital according to gender as well as the urban and rural division, the huge gap between different regions as well as between different gender represents some problems in many ways. To be specific, using PEST macro analysis method to analyze the overall environment in Anhui province, in view of unreasonable structure in the human resources, the lack in the total stock and the imperfect government control policies and so on, this paper provides some measures, such as improving the ability to carry out politics in economy, technology, society environment in Anhui province, expanding the industrial park, the development of strategic emerging industries.