The Empirical Analysis Of Service Trade Affecting The Upgrading China’s Service Trade Structure

Since the reform and opening up, especially since China’s entry into WTO, with the understanding of the importance of service industry continues to deepen, China’s service industry has been rapid development, but comparing with developed countries, the development of service industry is relatively backward and the service industry internal structure is not very reasonable, which restricts the sustainable development of our economy. A country’s industrial structure optimization needs the international factors and developed countries have a comparative advantage in service industry Service trade can not only promote the service industry, but also promote the service industry structure upgrade with technology spillover, technology transfer, human and capital accumulation and the improvement of the service trade structure. Therefore, China should vigorously develop trade in services, to improve our level of service industry, the optimization of service industry industrial structure, which has important strategic significance in the sustainable development of China’s economy.In this paper, we analyze whether the relationship between service trade and service industry structure quantitatively and establish regression model by three aspects of promoting the service industry technological progress, optimizing the service industry structure of production factors and improving the service trade structure, based on China’s the related data of service trade and service industry structure during 1983-2012. In addition, Granger causality test prove that service trade and service industry structure have causal relationship. The results are as following:Service trade export growth has a positive effect on service industry structural adjustment, which is less than the growth rate of income. These reflect that the role of effect of service trade is less than the pull of demand on the upgrading of the structure of service industry. the service sector output rate is not the reason of the upgrading of the structure of service industry. Which reflects The traditional service industry output is still larger than the modern service industry output at the present. In addition, through the analysis of the mechanism of upgrading of service trade structure of service industry display the problem of China’s service trade impact of service industry structure upgrade: The output growth of the traditional service occupies the dominant position in the entire service industry, which led the effect is not obvious on which the output growth of the traditional service to the upgrading of the structure of service industry; The growth of human capital accumulation in service industry shows the talent shortage of human capital in service trade. On this basis, we put forward suggestions to promote trade in services to push the upgrade of service industry structure, such as increasing the intensity of investment services, leading the development of the technology intensive service industry and improving the education and training mechanism, optimizing the internal structure of service trade.