| Since the 2008 financial crisis, China has experienced a decline in GDP growth in the quarter and bounce tracks a "V" shaped, in the first quarter of 2010 reached its highest point, after there has been a downward up to 16 quarters. For this round of slowdown in economic growth, some scholars believe that is "structural", not cyclical. Structural deceleration mainly from two transformation:industrial structure and population structure. Service-oriented industrial structure brought deceleration in labor productivity, demographic changes ended the era of cheap labor. Structural deceleration is also systemic deceleration, which is a long-term trend. External energy and environmental constraints on economic growth will continue to strengthen, relying on traditional high investment and high investment-driven rapid economic growth, is not conducive to a healthy and sustainable economic and social development. To improve national welfare requirements of economic growth can not be too slow. There must be existing a moderate economic growth theoretically. Different from the Western countries, China’s structural deceleration occurs at lower income levels, and thus not conducive to the sustainable growth and economic improvement of national welfare. Therefore, under the "structural slowdown" background, studying how to maintain moderate economic growth and reconstruction of the dynamic mechanism of economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance.Content of the paper consists of five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly review and summarize the existing literature. The second chapter is the theoretical part. Firstly, define the structural deceleration; then established the introduction of industrial restructuring economic growth model, theoretically described the impact of structural adjustment on economic growth; Secondly, the GDP per capita factorization decomposition of the three structural factors, namely, labor productivity, labor force participation rates and the proportion of working-age population. In order to reflect the industrial structure adjustment on labor productivity, this paper decompose labor productivity; Finally, this chapter empirically analysis the impact of three structural factors on economic growth with 13 country’s panel data. The third chapter describes the risk of slowing economic growth in China, mainly analyzes the structural factors of economic growth slowdown. The fourth chapter first describes the meaning of modest economic growth, whose essential meaning is the potential economic growth of a country or region; then analyzes the impact of structural factors on capital and labor; and then improve the Solow growth accounting model; Finally, this paper estimated China’s potential economic growth rate of 2015-2025 based on the improved modelAccording to this analysis, the following are main conclusions:(1) inefficient industrial structure would seriously undermine the overall efficiency gains, and then weak economic growth in the long term. (2) Due to demographic changes, labor supply reduction may not reduce the potential economic growth. The key is to improve labor productivity. (3) Due to the impact of structural factors, the future growth of capital will be reduced, improving capital efficiency is the key. (4) Technological progress is an important driving force of economic growth in the future. (5) In 2015-2025, China’s economic growth can keep on moderate range with the midline of 6.5%. |
