Study On The Risk Of Pig Production And Early Warning Of Hebei Province

Pig industry affects national economy and people’s livelihood. According to figures calculated by statistical data of Hebei Province, pig industry production value accounts for about 40 percents of the animal husbandry output value and about 20 percents of the agricultural output. The pig industry has gradually become a pillar industry of animal husbandry economy in Hebei Province. Pig breeding stocks are 19.329 million in Hebei Province in 2013, ranking ninth in our country, accounting for 4.1% of the national pig breeding stocks. Pig marketable fattened stocks are 34.520 million in Hebei Province in 2013, ranking ninth in our country, accounting for 4.8% of the national pig marketable fattened stock. Breeding stocks increased by 5.0% over the previous year and marketable fattened stocks increased by 1.6% over the previous year. Among 437 national pig advantage regions, Hebei accounts for 36, 8.23% of the total. We can see advantages of the pig production in Hebei Province. At the same time, we also should pay attention to the risks existing in the production process. Therefore, we should investigate, research and analysis on pig production risks systematically, then construct pig production risk early warning system of Hebei Province. They are of great significance to the development of pig production in Hebei Province.In this paper, we clear concept of pig production risk and warning firstly. Second we review the cobweb theory, information economics theory and risk management theory. Then we analyze the status of pig production in Hebei Province from regional distribution and large-scale breeding two aspects. We recognize the status and future trends of pig production of Hebei Province. According to actual research and discussion with pig farmers and staff of Animal Husbandry Station, we all agreed that the disease risk, environmental risk, financial risk, policy risk, market risk and access risk these six areas are the most important factors affecting pig production in Hebei Province. So we analyze the risks of pig production in Hebei Province from these six areas. Synthesis of existing research methods and the actual situations of Hebei Province, including the availability and representativeness of data, we use an integrated early warning method. We divide pig production alert limits of Hebei by systematic method, and build pig production early warning model of Hebei using comprehensive analysis method so that we can predict the short-term warning. By the annual state of leading indicators, we finally concluded that it is in middle alert state and basically consistent with reality for pig production in Hebei Province in 2014. Warning results are basically in line with reality. The results show that the early warning of pig production will stay security state in Hebei in 2015. Based on analysis of risk factors of pig production in Hebei Province, we put forward the following measures: promote cleaner production model and develop circular and low-carbon industrial chain, control strictly of using veterinary drugs and food additives for the security quality of the pig industry, establish vertical cooperation organization to forbid financial risk, construct disease prevention and control laboratories to enhance disease prevention and control capabilities, improve subsidy threshold to improve the pig breeding barrier, and introduce hog futures timely to transfer market risk.