Research Of Debt Risk Alarming Index System For Small And Medium Sci-tech Enterprise

With the progress of society and the development of science and technology, the competition between small and medium sci-tech enterprises are progressively intensified, which will face larger risk, there are many uncertainties and uncontrolled factors which are unpredictable. Outside the enterprises, the macroeconomic environment is changeable, market economic system is incomplete, and the social credit system had not been established effectively; there are drawbacks of management system existed in the enterprises, all these reason will increase the possibility of debt risk. Therefore, the establishment of risk alarming index system for enterprise debt could effectively prevent and control the debt risk in small and medium sci-tech enterprises. In this paper, the framework of risk alarming index was built at first, and on this basis, utilizing the principle component analysis (PCA) and panel data regression (PDR) to conduct the empirical study, establishing a comprehensive and systematic risk alarming index system.Initially, chosen the measurement indexes of debt risk and macroeconomic indexes as the alarming indexes, in which, measurement indexes are include the current ratio, quick ratio, asset-liability ratio, SDBR and etc, macroeconomic indexes are include the proportion of R&D expenditure (research and development expenditure) cost in GDP, Shanghai composite index, GDP growth rate, inflation rate and etc. Secondly, PAC was used to analyze the measurement indexes of debt risk, establishing a comprehensive debt risk index D. Then, the management of PDR was used to conduct the empirical analysis for alarming indexes, the results show that there is a directly proportional relationship between variable indicators of debt risk with R&D expenditure, Shanghai composite index and GDP growth rate; which means variable indicators will increase with the higher GDP grow rater, Shanghai composite index and large proportion that expenditure cost in GDP, the enterprises’ debt risk is lower; and there is an inverse relation between variable indicators with loan rate and inflation rate, which means the higher loan and inflation rate will lead to a lower variable indicator and higher enterprises’debt risk. Finally, based on the previous analysis, this paper provide the following suggestions for prevent debt risk: (1) Focusing the influence on debt risk by macroeconomic indexes; (2) Advanced risk management tool such as stress testing should be introduced in the risk alarming index system; (3) Establishing the integrated alarming mechanism for debt risk, which should based on effective alarming index system and build a perfect analysis and processing mechanism, establishing a comprehensive and whole management mechanism.