The Risk Management Of Investment Projects Based On The Code Of Valuation With Bill Quantity

At present, the main problem the owner faced by our construction project engineering are that it need large investment and a lot of time, and there are many kinds of risk factors in the completion. When investors want to invest some project, it is necessary to delimit the nature of a certain project at first, because once we start the project,we will experience the feasibility study, the bidding process, the construction process and consummation of inspection and reception, which is qualified, just entered the stage of ceremonial income. The risk of each stage is various and complex, if we do not forecast and block the risk timely, the expense of the whole construction sport events will increase, and the investors will add to money invested, which bring them economic losses. Whether the investors can find the right construction project by the feasibility study or not, whether they can choose a reliable construction unit through the bidding and whether the construction units can do a good job in engineering or not, which will influence the investment. How the completion acceptance is qualified and where proper propaganda in the sales stage is, how the profits is the same as expected profits or more than the expected profitability will also affect the total investment. And whether the construction sport events can be enforced fluky and successfully or not will also make an influence on ensuring engineering quality standards, subsiding engineering the fee and cutting down the cycle time of construction.The thesis takes the investor’s point of view, which study construction project investment,and enumerate the staple risk factors by using the method of AHP in analyzing the inventory valuation. Focus on the bidding process, the investor who is in the process of construction project bidding risk can be divided into two categories: general risks and special risks.The special risks are only appeared in the construction project. For the ordinary hazard, it has technology means and methods to solve in our country. There is not a general qualitative risks, it also means the project that also has a special place. When we use the quantities bill valuation according to different construction projects we often encounter such problems that the main aspects are unbalanced quotation as well as the actual quantity and the contract quantity discrepancy issues.This thesis takes the investor’s point of view, for the valuation of risk under the version of the 2013 Bill of Quantities model construction project investors who have to face. Combining the expert investigation and the theory of probability I analysis data in accordance with the specific parameter value and probability distribution model on the basis of the established risk factors framework. In order to form a Monte Carlo model to simulate the investment risk, which link the methods applied for the process of construction, assessment elements such as picking, and analyzed how to employ the Monte Carlo means to analyze risk factors of basic line. In the further, we need to extract risk factors, and to extract the main risk factors of risk index system by using specific data, the random simulation, simulation software and an estimate of the investment risk. And the risk factors for the project total investment is quantified and sensitivity analysis, which can predict individual risk factors that affect the total investment, so that investors adopt measures in advance, and reduce unnecessary costs increase or control and prevention of risks emerge.