XX Company Intelligent Terminal Project Risk Analysis

As a significant part of risk management of new high-tech enterprises, the issue of industrialization of high technology has been a focus of attention in various countries. At present, approaches such as break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis and net present value calculation are adopted for project risk analysis in enterprise management of China. It is obvious that the above approaches are not applicable to high-risk projects featured as mixed uncertain factors of long cycle, large investments, high requirement, difficulty development as well as complicated system. As to such kind of relatively complex and highly risky project of high-tech industrialization, Monte Carlo simulation method can be adopted to make estimation of any possible values of dependent variables according to probability distribution of each variable and to establish model of possible results for factors with inherent uncertainty. With this method, it will be more realistic, dynamic and complete than simply offering possible values of one or several results.In this paper, there will be, with intelligent terminal project of XX Company as research object, analysis, judgment and summarization of various factors affecting industrialization of high-tech products including market risk, financial risk, investment and operating cost risk, management risk, technical risk and project benefits risk. The analytic hierarchy process is adopted for selection of risk variables in a reasonable way, and Monte Carlo simulation method is applied in the entire risk analysis process to help establish a systemic model of project risks by combining qualitative research with quantitative research. By case analysis of the intelligent terminal project of XX Company with due consideration of status quo of high-tech industrialization in China, the model is established by applying relevant knowledge of econometrics, probability statistics and project management according to basic approaches of management science and basic principles of economics; besides, the estimation of results is made by adopting Monte Carlo simulation method for relatively effective and complete pre-judgment so as to provide strong and reliable support for decision-making by the management.