Study On The Pulling Effect And Optimal Level Of Shaanxi Water Conservancy Investment

Water conservancy investment is not only an effective way to promote economic development, but also an important way to improve people’s livelihood. The shortage of the water conservancy investment, together with the contradiction of water supply and demand, have long-term restricts the sustainable economic and social development of Shaanxi province. It has important significance to the economic and social development of Shaanxi province increasing the water conservancy investment, and improving the efficiency of water conservancy investment. Effective water conservancy investment not only depends on the moderate scale of investment, but also rely on the reasonable investment structure. Determining the optimal scale of investment in water conservancy and reasonable water conservancy investment structure are two key problems of water conservancy investment decision. Water conservancy facilities have properties of club goods, and it will have a "crowding effect” and affect the optimal level of supply in the process of supply. So it is a technical problem how to introduce the " crowding effect” into the empirical calculation of optimum scale of water conservancy investment to reduce the estimation error, which need to be solved in the process of determining the optimal scale of water conservancy investment.At the same time, there is another technical problem need to be solved in the water conservancy investment decision-making, calculating the stimulating effect of different departments of water conservancy investment on the economy and their transmission path, to determine their importance in the industrial structure of water conservancy, and adjusting the structure of water conservancy investment to make it more reasonable.Thus, on the basis of relevant research results, this paper firstly designs and establishes the water conservancy social accounting matrix of Shaanxi province, and secondly constructs water conservancy social accounting matrix multiplier model, then estimates the pulling effect of the water conservancy investment of Shaanxi province on the economic growth, and the specific pulling effect of different water conservancy investment sector to other sectors of the national economy. Then, using the structural path analysis principle, we further analyze the conduction path of the investment pulling effect of each water conservancy department, and reveal the inherent mechanism of water conservancy investment pulling the economic growth. What’s more, we construct the crowded effect measurement model of the water conservancy facilities of Shaanxi province and measure the crowed effect, and discuss the relationship between the crowded effect of water conservancy facilities, the optimal water investment scale and the economic growth in theory, and construct the optimal scale model of water conservancy facilities including the crowded effect, then calculate the optimal scale of water conservancy investment of Shaanxi province. Finally, on the basis of the above research, we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. The main conclusions are as follows:First, the departments closely related to the water conservancy investment includes service industry of agriculture, manufacturing industry of water conservancy and other general equipment, construction industry of water conservancy, management industry of water conservancy and production and supply industry of water. The investment increase of these five departments will have a significant pulling effect on the economy of Shaanxi province, and the pulling effect of these departments from large to small in turn are management industry of water conservancy(3.241209), service industry of agriculture(3.190143), construction industry of water conservancy(2.200939), manufacturing industry of water conservancy and other general equipment(2.013777) and production and supply industry of water(1.990166).Second, except for the manufacturing industry of water conservancy and other special equipment, the investments to the other four departments have significant pulling effect to the industry of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. At the same time, the investments to the five water conservancy departments have significant backward effect to food manufacturing industry, tobacco processing industry, chemical industry, electricity and heat production and supply industry, petroleum and nuclear fuel processing industry, coal mining and washing industry, accommodation and catering industry and transportation and warehousing industry.Third, the investments to the five water conservancy departments have significant pulling effect to the related departments, and the pulling effect is mainly through the interaction between endogenous accounts. But different water conservancy investment department have different pulling effect to the labor and capital factors.Fourth, the investments to the five water conservancy departments will greatly improve the income of enterprises and residents, and the total multiplier effect to residents account is greater than that to enterprises accounts. And this pulling effect to income is mainly through the interaction between endogenous accounts.Fifth, except for the water management industry, the investments of the other four water conservancy departments are mainly through the way of "different water conservancy investment departments->other industry departments” to stimulate growth in output of industry departments. The conduction modes of the pulling effect to related departments and institutional sector of different water conservancy departments have different stimulating effect.Sixth, Shaanxi province water conservancy facilities are crowded in the supply process, and its measure index ???175.1. This indicates that the population increase of Shaanxi province may have great impact to the supply level of water conservancy facilities. When the population increases, the supply level of water conservancy facilities will be at a fast rate to decrease.Seventh, the optimal investment scale of the crowded water conservancy facilities of Shaanxi province is 5.74%, namely when the per capita water conservancy investment accounted for about 5.74% of the per capita output, the water conservancy investment level of Shaanxi Province is optimal. Compared with the optimal investment scale, the water conservancy facilities investment of Shaanxi province is lower than the optimal level over the years.