Research On The Optimal Supply Decision Model Of The Supply Chain Based On Disruption Risks

Nowadays, with the generalization of outsourcing and the globalization of procurement,the supply chain system’s structure is becoming more and more complex. More and moresuppliers join in the system, which make the system become more fragile. Therebydisruption risk caused by emergency leading to the great harm for the supply chain systemis more easily than before, such as suppliers cannot offer the order in time. Therefore,manufacturers should choose the effective purchasing strategy and make reasonably backupcontract to solve the disruption risk of raw materials and components caused by emergency.So this paper explores and investigates the best way that manufacturers and suppliers arehow to deal with the disruption risk.Supply chain systems under different risks are our research object in this paper. Firstly,we study the change law of manufacturers’ inventory and production when they face withthe disruption risk, and still analyze the influence’s time and degree for manufacturerscaused by the disruption risk. Based on this, we compare and analyze the expected profitfunctions of the manufacturer when it uses or not uses dual-source procurement strategy,and then analyze the decision variables after compare to help manufacturers make decisionwhether using the dual-source procurement strategy or not. Then the paper further considerthe effect of the supply chain system based on the disruption risk, which caused byinformation sharing contract. Due to the disruption risks are different, this paper concludesthe risk environment into three parts. And then research further on information share andcooperation between the manufacturer and the main supplier, the manufacturer and thebackup supplier, and the main supplier and the backup supplier under each environment. Inthe end, Numerical examples are presented and some computational results are reported,which verify the accuracy of our models and conclusions.According to research the problems about whether using the dual-source procurementstrategy or not for the manufacturer who are in the disruption risk, and how the informationsharing contract to influence the optimal decision making by manufacturer and the supplier,we can attain the following mainly conclusions: For the manufacturer, whether he/she using the dual-source procurement strategy is not only depending on the duration time and degreeof the supply risk, but also relying on the manufacturer’s speed-up cost, order quantity andthe backup supplier’s wholesale price, product quality, holding cost and so on. So themanufacturer needs to consider all the factors to decide whether he/she will use thedual-source procurement strategy or not; In the risk system which considering theinformation sharing, the manufacturer can make the supplier to take the action that is morebenefit for the manufacturer by enhancing the supplier’s corresponding cost;Simultaneously, when the main supplier cooperates with the backup supplier, and share theinformation with each other, the manufacturer should sign the corresponding contract withthe suppliers to avoid this kind of cooperation happen. However, when the main supplierplans to cooperate with the backup supplier, he/she also should consider whether thecooperation will lead to greater profits for them or not.