Study On Selecting The Urban Path Of Urumqi Under Water Resource Restriction Based On The System Dynamic Model

Urumqi city has entered a rapid development stage. The use of production and life wateris increasing, and the water resources which have been exploited can not meet the socialdemand. In addition, there are a series of problems in water resources utilization andmanagement. The situation has influenced on the long-term development of Urumqi cityseriously. So, how to explore the reasonable city path and to resolve the contradictionbetween city development and water supply and demand will be an urgent and historic task.According to the theory and mechanism of water resources and Water Environment–Social-Economic-Ecology composite system, the paper studied the influence of waterresources in Urumqi city on the development of society and economy and urbanization usingDEA model, CES production function, Grey Correlation Analysis, Coordination Developmentmodel and other methods. On the basis of study the paper constructed the System Dynamic(SD) model of water resources and urbanization. According to the optimal target of waterresource constraints, the paper designed five kinds of representative city project and selectedthe optimal city route through simulation analysis. The result can provide reference forsolving the constraints of water resources crisis.The main research work is as follows: firstly, the paper studied the status and effects ofwater resources and city under the qualitative and quantitative combination. The Urumqiwater resources is scarce, water resource utilization efficiency of the DEA accounts for only10%, the average utilization efficiency of water resources is68.7%, the speed of urbanizationis faster than the national average level, and the water shortage degree is higher than thenational level. Influence of water resources on economic growth and industrial structurechange greatly, waste water emissions and economic and population growth was N style, thereal inflection point has not yet reached. The coordination level of water resources system andcity system is low. Thirdly, the paper constructed the simulation system of water resourcesand city using the SD model, with the goal of city planning and path optimization, repeatedsimulation experiment and designed five kinds of representative and difference type of citydevelopment schemes. After studying and comparing with different schemes according to theeconomic, environmental and social benefits goal, the fifth scheme is defined as the optimal city path. The scheme orientates medium speed of city development, adjusts industrialstructure, enhances water resources utilization and improves the water use efficiency, thentransfers3and5cubic meter water resources in2015and2020. The results show that the citycan achieve the breakthrough that water shortage degree is0in2015.The scheme canguarantee the city construction to continue in the surplus state of water. Under thedevelopment of the fifth scheme, the average annual economic growth is10.92%from2012to2030, the GDP can achieve1293.075billion Yuan, and industrial structure will upgrade,three production ratios are0.54:22.33:77.13.The rate of population growth is3%, and the totalpopulation is5649100in2030, at the same time the urbanization rate is97%. Waterenvironment pressure will decrease relatively, and the untreated discharge of waste water is6million cubic meter, and the first industrial water ratio will decrease to52.31%, meanwhile,the ratio of ecology and living water is6.39%and12.44%. The ecological city constructionwill make obvious progress, and the per capita ecological environment area is130.44squaremeter. City comprehensive benefits are fine.