The Study On Impacts Of International Oil Price And Oil Consumption On Economic Growth In China

Oil is an important strategic resource for economic development. In the context ofChina’s rapid economic development, frequent fluctuations in international oil prices andChina’s rapidly growing oil consumption have a huge impact on our country’s economicgrowth. In the past, due to China’s market regulation, the impact of international oil crisis onour country is very small. However, since China has been a net oil importer in1993, sustainedand rapid economic growth and an increasing demand for oil lead to the widening gapbetween supply and demand and rapidly rising dependence on foreign oil, Which are threatsto China’s economic growth. During the same period, violent fluctuations in international oilprices continued to rise, international oil prices transfer to the domestic directly without anybarriers, and then it impacts China’s economic On all sides through the transmission chain.Based on such background, this paper analyzes the current situation of the international oilprices and China’s demand for oil China’s, then explores their relationship with economicgrowth indicators, which in order to find the mechanism of the oil’s impact on China’seconomy and propose targeted strategy.Firstly, this paper introduced the economic growth in research areas and the influencingfactors of international oil prices and oil consumption in China. According to the relevantfactors, this paper conducted qualitative analysis on the three variables of international oilprices, China’s oil consumption and economic growth indicators, then build conductionsystem including the three varables. Secondly, this paper used the VAR model which is aclassical methods to verify the conduction system from an empirical perspective. After ADFtest, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test, this paper builds VAR model ofinternational oil prices and economic growth indicators, as well as China’s oil consumptionand the economic growth, then tested the models by impulse response function and varianceanalysis. The conclusion is that international oil prices and oil consumption does have a great impact on China’s economic growth, and the impact is especially direct and enormous onwhich the GDP growth and price level. Finally, combine literature research results and thequalitative and quantitative analysis results to conclude experience and enlightenment for theprotection of China’s economic growth from two angles of the international oil prices and oilconsumption in China.