Research On Assessment Of Social Stability Risk For Intercity Railway Project

The preliminary construction of intercity railway benefits the economic growth, andcauses some social unstable risks as well, including land expropriation, house removal,settlement ensurance, environmental change. The research on the assessment of socialstability risks in intercity railway, with scientific prediction, analysis and evaluation,presents the corresponding strategies and pre-proposal for the risks, which can provide thesignificant projects with decisive groundwork to evade, prevent and manipulate thepotential risks in social stability in the process of project implementation.Based on the analysis of features of intercity railway, the thesis reveals the existingproblems in social stable risks of present projects, and the domestic relative work isanalyzed as well. Adopting contrasting chart, comprehensive interview, project analogy,etc., various factors that can cause the social stable risks are classified and analyzed,ranging from preliminary investigation, survey&design (the second stage) to buildingand in-operation.Then, considering the rank of risk, the single factor risk estimate and thewhole risk evaluation model are shaped in intercity railway project. Meanwhile,somesuggestions about the application of the result in risk assessment are put forward as well asthe policies on risk precaution and deletion.In the thesis, the potential risks of the project,for different stages, are analyzed, from the legal, reasonable, feasible and reliableperspectives respectively, and the risk spot should be identified as well as judging the riskpossibility brought by single risk factors and level of its harmful influence. Both thequality and quantity methods are employed to judge the single factor risks’ impact on thewhole risk of prospective project. Some experts score to determine the single factor risk’sweight value of the whole risk of the prospect project. Furthermore, the integrative riskindex method is used to calculate the whole risk index, as a result, the comprehensive risklevel of the whole project is determined by the weight value of the amount of the singlerisk factors at each level. In last section, the social stable risk assessment of theproject----Xintang to Hongmei stretch in Guangzhou----Guangdong----Shenzhen intercityrailway is introduced. Meanwhile, some suggestions are demonstrated, which areprecaution and deletion of social stable risks in the process of the project.