China Automobile Industry Iron And Steel Dynamic Material Flow Metabolism Research

As the booming of Automobile industry in China, the consumption of steel isgrowing rapidly in this industry. Thus, the research of iron and steel material flowmetabolism in Chinese automobile industry is of great significance to the developmentof renewable resources recycling industry and remanufacturing industry. The systemdynamics model and the empirical model are integrated for the research in this paper.The study is conducted at two levels:Firstly, the dynamic material flow model of automotive industry is studied.Gompertz model is used to study the change trend of China passenger cars in use per1000people. Based on the model, the change of scraped automobile, steel plate andparts consumption of steel are studied under different assumptions of coefficient fromthe aspects of growth rate of population, saturation value of passenger cars in use per1000people, and life span distribution. The impact factors of parts remanufacturing andlightening vehicles weight are also discussed. By assumption that population growthrate be moderate and passenger cars in use per1000people be260, the following4aspects of result can be concluded on the reduction of steel consumption in automobileindustry by the year of2040:(1) it will decrease14.5million tons per year if the car lifespan be increased from10years to16years;(2) it will decrease7.5million tons peryear if the lightening vehicles weight is conducted;(3) it will decrease6-9.5milliontons per year if parts remanufacturing is conducted;(4) it will decrease26.26milliontons per year, which is only43%of the baseline scenario, if measures of expanding carlife span and lightening vehicles weight are combined.Secondly, the system dynamics of automobile industry is studied. A systemdynamic model is constructed based on the dynamic material flow model on thesoftware platform of Vensim, and the influence of government subsidies, car purchasetax and deposit system on steel metabolism of automobile industry is also analyzed.Results show that the amount of passenger cars in use will decrease while the number ofrecycled cars will increase if the government subsidies and car purchase tax are bothimproved, and deposit system is established. The profit is prominent, and theaccumulated net income will be18450billion yuan under the optimal policy combination.The research of this paper is of both theoretical and practical significance, as thesteel metabolic mechanism in automobile industry is proposed and policy suggestionsare also presented on the development of resource recycling industry. In conclusion,resource and energy can be largely conserved and environmental pressure can beremitted by expanding car life span, lightening vehicles weight, and improving partsremanufacturing level; enormous benefit on the aspect of economy, society andenvironment will be achieved by improving government subsidies and car purchase tax,and establishing deposit system in automobile industry.