Research In The Relationship Between Population Urbanization And Land Urbanization In China

Since1978, China has experienced a durable and rapid process of urbanization, whose two basic factors are the population and land. When to analyze the characteristic of population urbanization in China, the position of each province is stated relative stable in the map of the provinces population urbanization rate scatter picture. Then in order to study the relationship between the population urbanization and land urbanization, urban population and built-up area are chosen respectively as the proxy variables. This article firstly constructs a bivariate time series VAR model with the urban population and built-up area, then applies the Granger causality test to show that the change of urban population is the Granger cause to the change of built-up area, but built-up area change does not Granger cause the changes in the scale of the urban population. And then based on the findings, a panel data model regression analysis is applied to research the relationship between urban population and built-up area among the provinces. Five variables construct the model, such as urban population, built-up area, and the production of the primary, second and tertiary industries. The regression succeeds with a high degree of significance. Furthermore, it shows that increase in the primary industry output are negatively correlated with the increase in built-up area and the change of the other variables fabricate into a positive relationship with the change of built-up area. The urban population scale holds the most relative intensity among the four independent variables, and then follows the tertiary industry production, the primary industry output, and the least is the secondary industry production, which means urban population contributes the most to the development of urban built-up area, and then follows in sequence the increase of service industry output, the decrease of the primary industry, and at last the second industry production brings least to the increase in the built-up area. Therefore, it is verified that the population urbanization is the core of the urbanization, and then the non-agricultural industries are the channels to the target of population urbanization. So the land urbanization is the carrier of them. Now it becomes clear that the relationship between population and land urbanization.