The Variation Of The Monetary Policy Transmission Effects On Regional Housing Prices

This dissertation tries to investigate the effectiveness of the single monetary policy on individual regional housing price by a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis methods, which is a comprehensive assessment of the effects of the policy, and then advances sound recommendations.Firstly, I started from the general monetary policy transmission mechanism, and then on the basis of introducing the background and implementation of real estate regulation, I theoretically expatiate on the possibility and channels of the impact of monetary policy on the housing price. Further, from the perspective of non-symmetrical monetary, by optimal currency theory, it suggests that the conditions of optimal currency areas should not exist in our national, which means the difference of regional real estate housing market led to the variation of a unified regional heterogeneity of monetary policy on the effect transmission of regional housing market.Based on the theoretical support, the third part is concerning the current status of real estate market in China, involving the main macroeconomic indicators, real estate market trends, and then describing the outstanding problems in the housing market and government regulation.The study used cluster analysis and panel data model to empirically analyze the relationship between regional housing price and money supply, interest rates. Among them, the integration of M2 and several interests rates into the same research frame and taking the average house price of selected provinces and annual multiple price growth rate as the index of clustering analysis are the major highlight and innovation of this article. As a result,26 provinces were sorted into four major categories. I used eviews6.0 software to complete the corresponding experimental and statistical the reliability of the verification, to ensure that the experimental analysis can explain the real economic problems. Finally, the conclusion is:a unified monetary policy on housing prices in China does have some regulatory role, but with significant regional differences.1. Money supply is positively affective in all regions, as the most effective means.2. Reserve ratio has a certain inhibitory affection on the high housing prices area.3. Three-year lending rate and personal provident fund interest rate have impact on certain individual districts, but the positive and negative effects are not clear.Finally, the suggestion is to take discriminatory policies on local conditions, to sound policy transmission of the commercial banks by expand the monetary policy authority of branches in order to improve the effect of policy implementation.