An Empirical Study Of Influencing Factors On Industrial Carbon Emissions In Yangtze River Delta Cities

Yangtze River delta region has become the the economic core region,which has thelargest economy scale, the fastest economic development and the most broad developmentprospects.After the reform and opening up, especially since the1990s, the Yangtze Riverdelta region’s economic development has entered a new stage of modernization. As thebirthplace of China’s modern national industry, industrial development of the Yangtze Riverdelta region has played a leading role in its economic development. In2012, gross value ofindustrial output over scale of the Yangtze River delta region was17.35trillion yuan,increasing by6.9%compared to the same period last year. During the period of2000-2011,the sum of the gross value of industrial output of six main cities in Yangtze River delta,Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou and Ningbo, grew by an average of18.69%.The rapid development of industrial economy needs to consume large amounts of energyand resources, but the Yangtze River delta has been short of the energy and resources, most ofits primary energy is called in or imported from the other cities. In2007, the Yangtze Riverdelta’s total energy consumption was448.71million tons, which accounts for the proportionof16.9%.Its energy consumption growth rate is9.82%, higher than the national rate of7.80%.In2011, compared to the total industrial energy consumption in2000, the amout of the mainsix cities in Yangtze River delta has increased by1.56times. Under this condition, by2020,the Yangtze River delta region’s GDP will be quadrupled based on the2000’s, and the demandfor energy will also increase significantly. With the increase of energy consumption, industrialcarbon dioxide emissions will also continue to rise. During the sample period of six cities inYangtze River delta, the average annual growth rate of CO2is over5%.Energy conservationand emission reduction situation is very serious. Thus, industrial development has causedgreat pollution on the environment in Yangtze River delta while promoting economicdevelopment, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of economy.This article analysis the main influencing factors on industrial CO2changes of YangtzeRiver delta cities through the factor decomposition model and panel data model. Firstly, thispaper introduces the research background and significance of CO2emissions reduction, andmake a theoretical overview about the relationship between economic development andcarbon dioxide emissions at home and abroad in related fields, which lay the theoreticalfoundation for the empirical analysis; Secondly, the paper analyzes industrial economicdevelopment, energy consumption and CO2emission trends and changes of main six cities inYangtze River delta region during2000-2011. Through the establishment of LMDI model andpanel data model, the paper analyzes influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions of thesix cities in Yangtze River delta; Lastly, the paper puts forward the countermeasures andsuggestions from various angles for each city’s different industry, in order to promote the sustainable development of the Yangtze River delta industry.Through the analysis of theoretical and empirical research, this paper gets the followingconclusions: the industrial economic development is the main driving factors of industrialCO2emissions while energy intensity is the decisive factor to restrain industrial carbonemissions increase. Industry internal structure also slows down the industrial carbonemissions to a certain extent, but its inhibition is less than energy intensity’s. The promotingor inhibiting effect of energy consumption structure for carbon emissions is not very obvious.From the point of industrial divisions, industrial carbon dioxide emissions increase of sixcities in Yangtze River delta is mainly concentrated in such high energy consumptionindustries as black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, electric power, heatproduction and supply industry etc. Their industrial economy developed rapidly, and industryoutput value proportion is higher, so we should pay more attention to these industries whileoptimizating and adjusting industrial structure; The change of energy intensity of oilprocessing and coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rollingprocessing industry, electric power, heat production and supply industry offsets much of thecarbon emissions increased by other industries, so we can reduce energy intensity andimprove the efficiency of energy use through the introduction and application of advancedproduction technology and equipment. In addition, industrial population size is also animportant factor to the rise in carbon emissions. We should pay attention to the control ofpopulation during energy conservation and emissions reduction process in the future, thusfurther reducing its promoting effect on industrial carbon emissions.