Research On Evaluation Of Agricultural Products Trade Security In China

Agricultural trade relations with the country’s economic security, the securitystatus of agricultural trade is an urgent need to focus on. China accessed to the WTO atthe end of2001, must fulfill the WTO pledge of obligation of reduction of trade barriers.The agricultural trade policy should be adjusted according to WTO “agriculturalagreement”, and the Chinese government’s all kinds of support policies should belimited, which put forward the challenge to China’s agricultural products trade security.In recent years, China’s agricultural products trade deficit, international competitivenessis weak, trade dependency and concentration are higher, we almost has no voice ininternational agricultural trade, those all threat to agricultural trade security. How isChina’s agricultural trade security? What the Chinese government and companies needto do? Research on evaluation of agricultural trade security in China, it helps to putforward measures and suggestions to protect the safety of China’s agricultural productstrade.First, build security evaluation index system of agricultural trade. The paper issupported by strategic trade theory, national competitive advantage theory, industrysecurity theory and trade security, based on reference to other scholars’ research ontrade security, combined with the present situation of China’s agricultural productstrade, and builds security evaluation index system of agricultural trade fromparticipation in international markets, international political and economic relations, thedegree of trade influence national economy, the country’s trade policy. Participation ininternational markets including participation in foreign trade dependency, concentrationof foreign trade, trade competitiveness index, the proportion of labor-intensiveagricultural exports and other indicators; International political and economic relationsincluding trade relations with trading partners, and the relationship between regionaltrade organizations and other indicators; The degree of the agricultural economy isaffected by trade including foreign trade’s contribution to GDP, foreign trade increase jobs and other indicators; Country’s trade policy, including exchange rate changes andinfluence on the international agricultural product pricing.Then use the principal components analysis method and DEA model to analyzethe evaluation of China’s agricultural trade security. The paper use the principalcomponents analysis method to analyze the evaluation of China’s agricultural tradesecurity from2002to2012, three principal components are extracted by principalcomponents analysis method and calculate the score, and the comprehensive score ofagricultural product trade are calculated from2002to2012, these scores are0.99,2.46,1.4,-0.03,-1.66,0.71,-2.19,-3.53,1.21,1.10,1.53, which shows that Chinaagricultural trade security state is divided into two stages from2002to2012, securityfluctuate downward trend from2002to2009, China agricultural trade security statusimprove, begin to rise from2009to2012.Take international political and economic relations, the degree of trade influencenational economy, the country’s trade policy as the input indicators, and take degree ofparticipation in the international market as the output indicators, to build China’sagricultural trade security of DEA model, using DEA-BCC model from the angle ofinput-output to analyzes China’s agricultural products trade security status and China’sagricultural trade security comprehensive efficiency values are calculated from2002to2012, those values are0,0.502,1,0.864,0.957,0.909,1,0.711,0.486,0.335,0.396,which shows that the comprehensive efficiency of China’s agricultural trade safety isrelatively effective DEA in2004and in2008, and relatively ineffective DEA in otheryears. On the basis of comprehensive efficiency value, the paper builds trade securitywarning index, it is concluded that China’s agricultural products trade security is in adangerous state in general.Compare the two methods, the key conclusion is China’s agricultural trade securitystate fluctuated downward from2002to2009, and trade security status graduallyimproved after2009, and China’s agricultural trade security is in a dangerous state ingeneral from2002to2012. China’s agricultural trade international competitiveness isweak, and external dependency is higher, and China has no pricing power in theinternational market of agricultural products, China’s agricultural products trade security still exists.